Remember last year when Indy was a ten point favorite against Pitt at home? I do. All gamblers remember that one loss. You know, the one that cost you the 15 team parlay. Well that game cost me my perfect playoff run. And you know what, I should have saw it coming. I knew that game would play out one of two ways. Either a nail biter classic (like it was) or a blow out by indy. Pitt had to much respect to let it get ugly. Of course the game was close and my perfect record went down the toilet.
So how are these games going to play out you ask? The Indy/NE feels like the easier of the two. There is a ton recent games between the two, so at home, I think either Indy wins big, or NE pulls out a close one. But ask yourself, which would I rather bet on? Tony Dungy killing the pats, or Tom Brady pulling of a last minute drive to win the game? All week I have tried to talk myself into taking the colts but I have to go with NE. NE +3 in a classic.
The Bear/Saints just doesn't play out as easy. Too many other factors. Weather, inexperienced coaches, two QBs who hadn't won a playoff game till this year and a D that was once thought to be unstoppable, but now looks pretty average. Whats to say that Berieman doesn't catch 2 huge TD's and the Saints have to throw the rest of the day. Or Grossman could throw three picks in the first half and the Saints could blow them out. Tons of possibilities. In that case, I'll take the best QB/coach combo. Saints +2.
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