How to pick NFL playoff games

Its a great time of year for a sports gambler. The NFL playoffs are the best for addicts like me. During the season, teams are more likely to let a team hang around, or not come out firing on all cylinders. During the playoffs, you know guys are going to do whatever it takes to come away with a W. Just think back to Ronnie Lott cutting of part of his finger, just so he could play in that weeks playoff game. Anyways, on to home to make your picks.

1. Whose QB would you want on your team? Yeah, I know, Trent Dilfer won a superbowl ring. Well you know what? Jake Plummer will never win one (maybe as a backup), and neither will Chris Weinke, Tim Rattay, Brian Griese or Drew Bledsoe. Yes the QB won't win it for you, but he sure can lose it. If he has a history of bone head plays or not showing up for big games, do you really want your money on him?

2. Which head coach would you want to cheat at poker with? If a head coach is willing to do whatever it takes to win, you don't want to bet on him. Take a look at Bill Belicheck. Does he look like a nice trust worthy guy? No, and I don't want my head coach to be that guy. I want him to do whatever it takes to win a game. So on this years nice/trustworthy guy list is Herm Edwards and Tony dungy (unfortunately they play each other in the first round).

3. Does a team have a glaring hole? Have they had a hard time stopping the run? Is there secondary weak? Do they give up a bunch of big plays? Running back cough it up to much? To many penalties? Bad clock management? These things will all rear their head during the playoffs. This year not many of the teams don't have one of these flaws, but some definitely have less than others.
Dallas: Weak secondary, young QB, to many drops, way to many big plays
Seattle: They called me to try out for the secondary, no continuity on the offense
Chicago: Do they play offense?
New Orleans: Experience? Lots of big plays given up.
Giants: Pretty much everyone up there. Not sure this team wants to keep playing together
Philly: Can they run the ball when it counts? Can they stop the run without 8 in the box?
AFC
New York: Stopping the run, and a QB who can't throw it 20 yards
NE: Beat up secondary, and no real threat at wide out
KC: D has looked terrible at times and their coach is a serious choke artist (remember the jets in 04? I do)
Indy: run D is terrible, and they might be jinxed
SD: Marty has never gotten it done before in the playoffs what makes me think this year is different?
Baltimore: 24 carries for 67 yards is not a good running game.

I'll set up my first round picks on Friday. I have a lot to live up to this year after last years 10-1 record.