Gophers Football

The gophers have their new coaching staff in place. It looks like the spread offense is going to be coming to the dome this season. I can't say that I am too excited about it. The Gophers have had a pretty good O for the last 6 years or so and because of their style of play have been able to recruit some big name running backs and tight ends. Its going to be a tough recruiting road if we are trying to get the kids who fit into this offense the best. The offense isn't huge in the Big Ten, but OSU, Northwestern and Purdue all run some form of it.

I am impressed that they brought in quality guys with a good history, but turning around this program is going to be a test for anyone.

State of the Union

Besides the obvious holes in the presidents address. Like the fact that the War on Terror is probably the biggest consumer of fuel in the world, I want to talk about his tax cuts for health care.

If you haven't noticed, the health care system in America is completely broken. I know pure Smithian economists would say its broken because there is not enough true competition, but I think if Smith were alive today, he would probably agree with me that its really hard to compete the health care service. If I am dying on the stretcher, I don't want to find out who has the best deal, I want them to save my ass. Period.

Here is the gist, the President has proposed a tax cut for the money you and I spend on health care. Sounds like a good deal right? Well it doesn't really help the millions of Americans who are still without health care. They aren't going to make any more money, and the prospect of a tax cut means about nothing to the average person who lives without health care.

Its sort of like saying, the people don't have bread to eat. Well, let them eat cake.

Football and Politics

Two topics, one post.

First the football. I was 0-2 this weekend. Ouch. Can't say it was a big shock after my picks this year pretty much turned to shit after week 2. I am in some form of shock that Rex Grossman made it to the Superbowl and Tom Brady lost to Peyton Manning in a playoff game all happened in the same day. The devil may be wearing snow shoes today. The 7 point line sounds about right. If this game was at indy the line would be 10. At Chicago, it would be indy -3. I can't bet on Grossman. Period.

Second, the more I read about Hugo Chavez, the more I love him. Its always good times when someone get referred to as a gringo. In case you didn't see, he called the US a 'bunch of gringos' and told us to mind our own business. I am fully expecting to being deployed to Venezuela within the next 10 years. Actually it will probably be more like 5.

That is why it is called gambling

Remember last year when Indy was a ten point favorite against Pitt at home? I do. All gamblers remember that one loss. You know, the one that cost you the 15 team parlay. Well that game cost me my perfect playoff run. And you know what, I should have saw it coming. I knew that game would play out one of two ways. Either a nail biter classic (like it was) or a blow out by indy. Pitt had to much respect to let it get ugly. Of course the game was close and my perfect record went down the toilet.

So how are these games going to play out you ask? The Indy/NE feels like the easier of the two. There is a ton recent games between the two, so at home, I think either Indy wins big, or NE pulls out a close one. But ask yourself, which would I rather bet on? Tony Dungy killing the pats, or Tom Brady pulling of a last minute drive to win the game? All week I have tried to talk myself into taking the colts but I have to go with NE. NE +3 in a classic.

The Bear/Saints just doesn't play out as easy. Too many other factors. Weather, inexperienced coaches, two QBs who hadn't won a playoff game till this year and a D that was once thought to be unstoppable, but now looks pretty average. Whats to say that Berieman doesn't catch 2 huge TD's and the Saints have to throw the rest of the day. Or Grossman could throw three picks in the first half and the Saints could blow them out. Tons of possibilities. In that case, I'll take the best QB/coach combo. Saints +2.

The best recruiter I have ever seen?

That is a quote from Tom Flemming who is pretty much the Mel Kiper Jr. of college football recruiting. Who is it about you ask? Tim Brewster. Who is currently the TE's coach for the Denver Bronco's, but is rumored to be the next head coach of the University of Minnesota Golden Gophers.

Every thing I have read looks good. Not a big name, but I can get by that if the guy can really recruit. But recruiting for programs like Texas and North Carolina is a lot different than recruiting for MN. Until the stadium is finished, the Gophers are still the only big ten team without an on campus stadium. The U is great, really cool bars and close to the city, but its no Austin or Chapel Hill.

Here is my prediction. Brewster comes in and has 3-4 good years of recruiting, finishes 2nd or 3rd in the Big Ten and maybe pulls off a win at OSU or Mich one year. Then he'll skip town for some place with instate talent and a fan base that isn't at the game for a hockey ticket promotion.

Are the Colts a Superbowl Team?

Did you see the Colts final drive last night? Wow. That is what Super Bowl teams do. Up by 6 with 7:30 to play, you need to be able to put together a 6 mn game clincher. And the Colts did it. Grinding out tough yards and getting first down after first down against the toughest D they'll face in the playoffs. The catch by Clark on third down is one of those plays that will go unnoticed if they win the SB, but it was really the play of the game. If its incomplete, the Colts punt and Balt has 2:30 and a 2 mn warning to go the length of the field for a score.

Really the only thing holding the Colts back is Dungy. Has he ever watched football before? Up by 6 with less than 2 mn to go and your opponent has no time outs. Tell me the logic in a field goal? Yeah, lets get the guys on the field who play the least, and see if the Ravens can block or kick and return it for a touchdown. There is absolutely no reason to kick the ball. Take a knee and get your D on the field. Especially since Balt hadn't moved the ball all game.

I am going to cheer for the Pats tonight just we can watch the Pats @ Colts one more time.

This Weekends games...on a whim

I haven't had the time I did last year to make my playoff picks, but there will be no excuses here. I think this will be a memorable week in football.

Indy +4 @ Balt If this game was a pick'em, I would go with Balt. But its not, so I have to take the colts. Let me be the guy who says that the Colts run D still sucks. The only problem is that Jamal Lewis is pretty much a 3 yards and a cloud of dust guy. Balt wins by a field goal.

NO -6 vs Philly My rule with underdogs in the playoffs is don't take them unless you think they can win out right. Philly has been here before, I just think NO has to many weapons and the citizens of NO will be trashed by the late kickoff.

SEA +8.5 @ Chi Do you have what it takes to bet on Rex Grossman? I don't. SEA has not been very good this year, I just have this vision of Rex throwing three picks in the first half and the bears having to play from behind the rest of the game.

NE +4.5 @ SD I really, really want to take SD here. And if I don't bet the game, I will definitely cheer for them. But I just can't bring myself to overlooking the QB/Coach match up. Its really not even close in this match up. If SD wins, it will have to be someone else besides LT who gets it done.

New Troops have Limited Role

The New York Times reported that a President Bush aide has said the the additional troops sent to Iraq will have a limited role.

What in the hell does that mean? When an insurgent is planting a IED, does he say, oh wait, this guy/gal has a limited role, I don't want to blow their legs off. Do you know what a limited role is? Its the last base you were at before you land in Iraq. Those people have a limited role. If you are in Iraq/Afghanistan your role is not limited.

Those Crazy Venezuelans

Well, Hugo Chavez is in the news again. He has made a move to nationalize his nations phone service. Basically what he is doing is removing the foreign investors from a basic service used by every Venezuelan. Americans think of nationalization as a completely awful thing. We have these ideals about the success's of open markets. But are America's market so open? Would it be possible for me or you to start our own cable company or electric company? No way. Not only would the current phone and electric companies do everything in their power to stop us, but so would the politicians who are supported by those same companies.

In my opinion, Chavez is headed in the right direction with the nationalization of some of the basics. As long as he is willing to contribute to the oversight and management of those utilities, it should thoroughly benefit the citizens of Venezuela.

Playoff Destruction

I have said it all along this year, the Jets D is made up of smoke and mirrors. Well, the Pats came out and started smashing mirrors. The quick count dive play was really what did them in. At one point in time they ran it 5 times in a row for two first downs on one of the three drives they put together that basically showed how much better they were than the Jets.

I appreciate the way the Jets played. Aside from not being big enough up front on either side, the Jets didn't get out coached, and did some things on offense really well. If they had converted field goals into touchdowns, this was probably their game.

Either way, I slept well knowing Mangenius will be back next year and the Jets have a ton of cap room to bring in some help. All in all it was a good season.

Pre Game Feelings

I haven't been this excited about an NFL game since Jets/Steelers in '04. We all know how that ended, so I try to skip past those memories.

Thought one; No one, and I mean no one thinks the Jets can win this game. I know all about Bellichecks record in the playoffs with Tom Brady, but seriously, let him throw the ball. The pats can't win this game unless they decide they want to run the ball. They don't have enough weapons at WR to get it done.

Thought two; the whole mangini/bellicheck talk is great, but I doubt it does anything to the players. Bellicheck is an asshole, and has been for forever.

Thought three; as long as they can keep it close, they can get it done. Turnovers will decide the outcome of this game. If we can get a big return or turnover, they can swing the momentum quickly.

I can't type anymore because I am so pumped up!

Who I like this weekend

Well, the way my gambling has gone this season, you are probably smart to take the opposite of my pics. But since I was on fire last year, I have to try and continue my playoff hot streak.

Indy -7 vs KC Yeah yeah yeah, I don't need anyone else to tell me that LJ is going to run wild on the Colts. If you are down by 21, you can't run the ball. If I have a lock this week, this is it.

Sea -3 vs Dallas I have a thing about taking young QB's on the road in the playoffs. I don't do it. I am not crazy about this game because both of their secondaries are terrible, but I would rather go with the experience than the inexperience

NYJ +8.5 @ NE I know you think I am picking this game because I am a fan, but I really think the jets win this game. If the turnovers are even the jets win. Believe it or not, they have more playmakers on the offensive side of the ball. Aside from Brady and Maroney, they are all average at best.

Giants +7 vs Philly I have no idea on this game. I would prefer not to have any money on either of those QB's. Eli's last name is 'manning' and there is a reason that Garcia has been on 10 different teams. 7 points is a lot in this game, and I don't trust Philly that much.

So there you have it. Lets hope for some good games.

Bye bye Nick Saban

I am going to miss Nick Saban. He actually made me quiet a bit of money, and he would have made me more if it weren't for the incompetent Daunte Culpepper. If you give Nick Saban an entire off season and a decent team, he'll get you a cover. He's not an NFL coach, but he is one heck of a college coach. He just couldn't prepare his team for a tough game every single week. One week they would come out like gang busters against a good team and the next they would lay and egg against an average team.

He left the NFL for one of the top 5 toughest college jobs in the country. Somewhere behind LSU and ahead of Texas. The good thing is that he only needs to win one game a year, the Auburn game. The bad thing is that Auburn is a darn good team.

You heard it hear first, Saban wins 9 games next year with a talented Bama' team. And one of those wins is against Auburn.

How to pick NFL playoff games

Its a great time of year for a sports gambler. The NFL playoffs are the best for addicts like me. During the season, teams are more likely to let a team hang around, or not come out firing on all cylinders. During the playoffs, you know guys are going to do whatever it takes to come away with a W. Just think back to Ronnie Lott cutting of part of his finger, just so he could play in that weeks playoff game. Anyways, on to home to make your picks.

1. Whose QB would you want on your team? Yeah, I know, Trent Dilfer won a superbowl ring. Well you know what? Jake Plummer will never win one (maybe as a backup), and neither will Chris Weinke, Tim Rattay, Brian Griese or Drew Bledsoe. Yes the QB won't win it for you, but he sure can lose it. If he has a history of bone head plays or not showing up for big games, do you really want your money on him?

2. Which head coach would you want to cheat at poker with? If a head coach is willing to do whatever it takes to win, you don't want to bet on him. Take a look at Bill Belicheck. Does he look like a nice trust worthy guy? No, and I don't want my head coach to be that guy. I want him to do whatever it takes to win a game. So on this years nice/trustworthy guy list is Herm Edwards and Tony dungy (unfortunately they play each other in the first round).

3. Does a team have a glaring hole? Have they had a hard time stopping the run? Is there secondary weak? Do they give up a bunch of big plays? Running back cough it up to much? To many penalties? Bad clock management? These things will all rear their head during the playoffs. This year not many of the teams don't have one of these flaws, but some definitely have less than others.
Dallas: Weak secondary, young QB, to many drops, way to many big plays
Seattle: They called me to try out for the secondary, no continuity on the offense
Chicago: Do they play offense?
New Orleans: Experience? Lots of big plays given up.
Giants: Pretty much everyone up there. Not sure this team wants to keep playing together
Philly: Can they run the ball when it counts? Can they stop the run without 8 in the box?
AFC
New York: Stopping the run, and a QB who can't throw it 20 yards
NE: Beat up secondary, and no real threat at wide out
KC: D has looked terrible at times and their coach is a serious choke artist (remember the jets in 04? I do)
Indy: run D is terrible, and they might be jinxed
SD: Marty has never gotten it done before in the playoffs what makes me think this year is different?
Baltimore: 24 carries for 67 yards is not a good running game.

I'll set up my first round picks on Friday. I have a lot to live up to this year after last years 10-1 record.

Jets and Gophers

Good news on both fronts. The Jets made the playoffs after a historic season. No one, and I really mean no one thought the Jets would win ten games and make the playoffs. Yet they have managed to pull off the unthinkable with a rookie head coach and a spaghetti armed QB. Next week it is off to New England where they have already won once this year. Its never a good thing when you have to face Brady and Bellicheck in the playoffs, but if any team can beat them, its this team.

The Gophers finally did the right thing, even though it is a year late. Glenn Mason was fired yesterday after 10 years as the gophers head coach. Did the guy do a good job? Yes, but he was never going to get the gophers past lousy bowls games he got them to every year. As far as recruiting goes, he did an above average job of keeping MN kids in the state and also getting some talent from Ohio and Missouri. Three of the running backs he recruited are starters in the NFL. I don't think another college team could say the same thing. The problem with Mason was he couldn't win. He sucked against Wis and Michigan, two of the biggest rivals. He scheduled cup cake non-conference teams and then struggled mightily to beat them. Then he would get the Gophers to a bowl game and have some of the worst collapses in NCAA history.

Now all that I can do is hope that the Gophers are able to bring in a coach who is ready to compete in the Big Ten. If it were me, I would go after Skip Holtz from E. Carolina. He is a bigger name which will sell tickets for the new stadium, and his dad has a ton of connections throughout the Midwest.