I was going to throw together a recap of Saturday night's college football games and the first games on Sunday, but I'm going to skip all that. There was some good info on the USC/OSU game that I posted on Facebook. I scratched my head all game long why OSU didn't throw the ball short to the slot receiver. Could there be an easier throw? Puzzling. I wonder what it would take for Tressel to hand over the play calling. I think he'd just assume retire.
As far as gambling is concerned, I'm on a hot streak. I'm 9-2 ATS this week headed into Monday night. If I was playing black jack, I'd probably have walked away from the table. On the flip side, if I were playing craps, I'd be pressing my bets, yelling 'big shooter', doing shots and tipping the dealers. Well this isn't either of those situations. But, the house still wins and usually not just the vig. While vegas generally sets the line for the most amount of action, you'll see some scenarios where that isn't the case. In some instances, Vegas is happy with the line and won't adjust no matter how much cash is going one way. A perfect example would be the two biggest games from Saturday. Tons of money was pouring in on USC and Notre Dame, the two road favorites, but the line didn't move. What happened? The dogs covered or won straight up. I was smart enough to see the USC game coming, but missed the Michigan game. I just couldn't get my head around Michigan stopping Tate or Floyd.
It's one of the things I evaluate every week when making my picks. Sportsbook.com actually posts what percentages of wagers are placed on whom. If I really like a game but see so does 95% of the population, I take pause and reevaluate. If the line hasn't shifted, I'll either stay away or look for a reason to reverse. If the line is moving along with the money, then hopefully I got in early and didn't have to work with the bigger line. If you are reading this, which I doubt anyone does, and are saying to yourself, 'wait, you actually think about this stuff?' Yes, handicapping is more than just knowing what the starting QB's name is and what time the game starts. Trying to use deductive reasoning to figure out who is going to win is the best part.
As for Monday night's games I picked the Chargers -9.5 at Oakland earlier this week. The line opened at 7 (3 months ago) and has shifted up to follow the money. The money is chasing the chargers with 75% of the action, but there is probably enough money line action on the Raider at 4-1 to balance it out. While I'll stick with my pick, I really wouldn't wager this one too hard unless you were chasing your losses from earlier in the week. I know home field doesn't matter much in the NFL, but 10 points is a bunch to give up to any road team even one that is far more talented.
I didn't make a pick for the Pats/Bills game, but this one scares me. First, the Pats have a new O coordinator, a QB who hasn't played a real game in a year, an O line that is near the bottom of the league and a defense that is 80% new. Not exactly the recipe for success. Lucky for them, they get to play the Bills. There were 3 teams who fired their O coordinators in the preseason. 2 of them lost and didn't cover. That doesn't bode well for the Bills who also have an O line that is considerably worse than the Pats'. Two touchdowns is a bunch to give up in the NFL especially with some much change for the Pats, but I don't foresee anyway that the Bills keep this closer the 10 especially if the run the no huddle for any period of time. NE is 8-2 ATS vs Buff in their last meetings. Both were home games for NE and one was the season opener in 2006. While that was a good team, they really didn't have the fire power they have now. With all that said, I've talked myself into taking the Pats tonight.
And since I'm riding a heater, I might as well make it a parlay!
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