Owning Mahoney

One of the greatest gambling movies of all time is Owning Mahoney. It was Philip Seymour Hoffman before he became ultra famous. Don't get me wrong, he's was famous at the time, but he'd always played second fiddle. This was one of his first leading roles. Now the movie is great, but the book is simply amazing but it goes by the title 'Owning Maloney'. I guess they didn't think Americans would be into a movie with a guy with that last name. Anyways, he was a compulsive gambler to the nth degree. In his mind, he believed that eventually he'd just break even. So he'd call his bookie and say "I'll take the away teams in the American League and the home teams in the National League for a thousand each." Which to me sounds like the most awful way to bet ever since there is no conceivable way you could watch all those games, so you are basically just going to wake up in the morning, check the paper and see if you lost. Buy a powerball.

Two points I want to make off this intro; first gambling on sports is fun for two primary reasons. First, it gives you a reason to cheer on teams you'd normally ignore. Secondly, it gives you a chance to evaluate teams like you would apples at the super market. You can squeeze them and smell them all day, but you won't know what's in store until you take a bite.

For this weeks pics, I pulled a Mahoney and took all the away teams in the NFL and the home teams in college. And Sunday night, I'll be eating dry ribs with a diet coke.

Here are the pics for this week. I'll be traveling for the next 2 weeks, so results may come in slow. I'll have to see what my internet situation looks like. I'll take the home teams in college and the away teams in the NFL.

Texas -18 vs TT; Hard to take tech in this game considering that leach has never won at Austin plus the revenge factor is going to weigh in big time. Not exactly a game I'd target otherwise because you never know what will happen, but Texas is clearly an 18 point favorite when it comes to talent.

Iowa -6 vs Arizona; tough road trip for Arizona. Iowa has a very strong O line/D line combo and this spread is only this low because of the slow start they had v N Iowa. That won't happen again. Iowa has found a rhythm with two good running backs and will be able to win this game by more than a TD at home.

NFL

Colts -3 @ Miami; I'm not sure how Miami will score in this game. Aside from their gimmick formations, they just don't pose a threat. This seems to happen the second year of every new system for Pennington. His little lob passes start getting timed. I worry about the line because the colts just don't close people out, but I can see them winning this one by ten.

Gints +3 @ Dallas; What is the over under on the number of punts that hit the scoreboard? I'm going with 6. That may sound high, but I think the punters in the league will be out to prove a point. BTW, do you think Jerry bribed the Boys punter not to hit it? In my eyes, the Gints are the better team. While the boys looked great last week, this week they play a real team that can actually score points on offense.


Seattle +1.5 @ Niners; pretty surprised to see this line. I guess the book makers expected Arizona to be good this year. Defensively, the two teams are a draw, but offensively, I don't think its close. I'll take the points any day in this one.

Heading into Monday Night

I was going to throw together a recap of Saturday night's college football games and the first games on Sunday, but I'm going to skip all that. There was some good info on the USC/OSU game that I posted on Facebook. I scratched my head all game long why OSU didn't throw the ball short to the slot receiver. Could there be an easier throw? Puzzling. I wonder what it would take for Tressel to hand over the play calling. I think he'd just assume retire.

As far as gambling is concerned, I'm on a hot streak. I'm 9-2 ATS this week headed into Monday night. If I was playing black jack, I'd probably have walked away from the table. On the flip side, if I were playing craps, I'd be pressing my bets, yelling 'big shooter', doing shots and tipping the dealers. Well this isn't either of those situations. But, the house still wins and usually not just the vig. While vegas generally sets the line for the most amount of action, you'll see some scenarios where that isn't the case. In some instances, Vegas is happy with the line and won't adjust no matter how much cash is going one way. A perfect example would be the two biggest games from Saturday. Tons of money was pouring in on USC and Notre Dame, the two road favorites, but the line didn't move. What happened? The dogs covered or won straight up. I was smart enough to see the USC game coming, but missed the Michigan game. I just couldn't get my head around Michigan stopping Tate or Floyd.

It's one of the things I evaluate every week when making my picks. Sportsbook.com actually posts what percentages of wagers are placed on whom. If I really like a game but see so does 95% of the population, I take pause and reevaluate. If the line hasn't shifted, I'll either stay away or look for a reason to reverse. If the line is moving along with the money, then hopefully I got in early and didn't have to work with the bigger line. If you are reading this, which I doubt anyone does, and are saying to yourself, 'wait, you actually think about this stuff?' Yes, handicapping is more than just knowing what the starting QB's name is and what time the game starts. Trying to use deductive reasoning to figure out who is going to win is the best part.

As for Monday night's games I picked the Chargers -9.5 at Oakland earlier this week. The line opened at 7 (3 months ago) and has shifted up to follow the money. The money is chasing the chargers with 75% of the action, but there is probably enough money line action on the Raider at 4-1 to balance it out. While I'll stick with my pick, I really wouldn't wager this one too hard unless you were chasing your losses from earlier in the week. I know home field doesn't matter much in the NFL, but 10 points is a bunch to give up to any road team even one that is far more talented.

I didn't make a pick for the Pats/Bills game, but this one scares me. First, the Pats have a new O coordinator, a QB who hasn't played a real game in a year, an O line that is near the bottom of the league and a defense that is 80% new. Not exactly the recipe for success. Lucky for them, they get to play the Bills. There were 3 teams who fired their O coordinators in the preseason. 2 of them lost and didn't cover. That doesn't bode well for the Bills who also have an O line that is considerably worse than the Pats'. Two touchdowns is a bunch to give up in the NFL especially with some much change for the Pats, but I don't foresee anyway that the Bills keep this closer the 10 especially if the run the no huddle for any period of time. NE is 8-2 ATS vs Buff in their last meetings. Both were home games for NE and one was the season opener in 2006. While that was a good team, they really didn't have the fire power they have now. With all that said, I've talked myself into taking the Pats tonight.

And since I'm riding a heater, I might as well make it a parlay!

 

Week 2 Picks

If you missed last week, a group of friends and I pick 2 college games and 3 NFL games every week against the spread. We have to pick the college game that hosts ESPN's College Game day, the Sunday Night Game and the Monday night game. this week there are 2 Monday nighters, so you can pick either one. I was a perfect 2-0 last week, and I jumped out to an early lead. Hopefully I can keep things rolling.

OSU +7 vs USC: Ask yourself why this line is so low? If Navy was nearly able to go into the big house and pull of the upset, why isn’t this line more representative of what happened last year when these two teams played. The answer is, because vegas knows better. 85% of the people betting this game are all over USC, but the line isn’t moving. Plus, I don’t like freshman on the road and I’m not entirely sold on USC run game. It’s good, but so is OSUs D.

Boise St -36.5 vs Miami, Oh: This is a ton of points to give up, but M of O is probably the worst team in a pretty weak MAC conference. The west coast travel isn’t going to do them any favors. Plus, BSU loves covering at home and needs to destroy teams to stay in the BCS bowl talk.


NFL

GB -4 vs Chi town: I think Cutler is a stud, but I don’t think the bears have enough weapons on O for this to beat the Pack. I worry a little about the Pack’s D, but I think Rodgers throws for 3 TD’s for the cover.

Bolts -9.5 @ Oakland: I wish I got on this line earlier, but SD is one of the 3 best teams in the AFC, and Oak is one of the worst in the NFL. I think Russel throws a couple of picks and this gets ugly early. I hate these games because I’ll wake up at 4 to watch the last part of the game and the score will already be 31-10. I’ll be mad because it’s 4 in the AM and the announcers are talking about driving across the golden gate bridge.

San Fran +7 vs Cards: Mark my words, this is a down year for Arizona. San Fran ended last season pretty strong and is a team on the upside. I think they’ll be able to eek this one out. Don’t shy away from the money line on this one.

On to the NFL

I’ve spent an inordinate amount of time this past summer review college football teams and where they are headed. Unfortunately, my time spent on college football has significantly limited the amount of time I’ve spend on the NFL. But a lack of preparation didn’t prevent me from getting a college degree, so why would it stop me from predicting the results of the NFL season. I’m just going to cover the playoff teams briefly.

AFC
1. San Diego: While I think their talent is on par with New England and they have a much weaker coaching staff, I also think they have a much easier schedule and are bound to be lucky than they were last year. The whole Tila Tequila thing has got to have the Bolts fans worried, but I think the team named for a “whale’s vagina” will be able to bounce back. They are favored by 9 this weekend and I like them to cover.
2. New England: Tom Brady is back, along with Randy Moss and Wes Welker. With those three alone, they should put up 35 points a game. I’m a little worried about their defense because they have lost a lot of key players over the last few years. But I wouldn’t doubt it too much since Bellichik is a defense guru and knows that depth is as important a studs especially on D.
3. Pittsburgh: This team always finds a way to win. They have good depth and are well coached.
4. Colts: No Harrison this year, but I don’t think WR will be an issue for them this season. If their O line can give Peyton time and if they can slow people down just a little on D, then they’ll be a playoff team easy. If Peyton gets beat up because of lousy pass protection, then they could be in trouble. I think the Texans are their biggest threat this year. The Jags and Titans will dip off.
5. Houston: I like their schedule better than the Ravens and Dolphins although I think the other two are better on paper. If they can keep their QB standing, they’ll be in the playoffs.
6. Ravens: I worry about their offense scoring on a consistent basis, but their D is probably good enough to carry them into the playoffs.

NFC
1. GInts: I really like this team this year. They are still very experienced after winning the Super Bowl 2 seasons ago. I think they’ll be able to move the ball consistently on offense but I’m a little concerned about their execution in the red zone. I’ve read in a couple of places that teams who struggle in the red zone one year but are good otherwise usually rebound. Others say losing Plaxico was the reason for the struggles. We’ll see.
2. GB: Love the Packers this year. I think they might have the 2nd best offense outside of New England. I’m slightly concerned about the switch to the 3-4 defense, but the Jets did it when Mangini took over and they were fairly effective. The division is pretty tough, but their schedule looks good otherwise.
3. New Orleans: They open vs the Lions with a 13 point line. They should be able to score enough to compensate for a very ordinary defense. The NFC west is always a crap shoot and I’d rather have my money on Drew Brees then the other 3 QB’s.
4. Seattle: I think we’ll see them open up the offense a little more this year as they move away from the old fashioned west coast offense to more spread formations. I think Hasselbeck will thrive with a new head coach.
5. Cowboys: This pick is contingent on Tony Romo playing 16 games. If I were Jerry Jones, I’d sign Jeff Garcia for an insurance policy because the offense has really sputtered when he’s been injured. Garcia has a similar style and would probably keep them rolling into the playoffs if Romo got hurt.
6. Vikes: I don’t like the Favre signing very much if only for the fact the guy is old and pretty out of shape. I’d honestly like to have Garcia instead of Favre. Obviously he doesn’t have the same track record, but the guy isn’t falling apart at the seams like Favre. The vikes D and running game is good enough to carry them most of the way, but I don’t think they’ll be as good as most of the Purple People think.

Week 1 Recap

It was great to see college football back on the TV. Watching college football in my time zone takes a little bit more pre-planning than back in the states. The first kickoff for me doesn't start until 6 pm. That means the last kickoff of the night usually happens around 3 or 4 am. Of course, the best games are generally the later kickoffs. My ritual is to watch the first games and by the time they are wrapping up, Alicia is in bed. Generally, the 2^nd game is usually a Pac-10 game and is of less importance. About half time of the second set of games is when I go down for a nap. If for some reason, those games are really appealing, then I just pop a red bull and hope the wife lets me sleep in.

This weekend started off with the Gophers/Orange(men) being shown at 6 pm. Alicia was going to a movie with a friend, so Lucy was 'extra' tired and went to bed a little early so daddy could concentrate. It was an excruciating game to watch. The Gophers have switched their offense to the spread option of the last 2 seasons to a more pro style offense that closely resembles what they were doing 3 seasons ago when they were consistently one of the top ten teams in the FBS in rushing every year. Well let me re-phrase that, the formations looked similar, the results where not even close. The run game was pretty anemic, but was some how out done by the lousy QB play and overall play calling. This was Adam Weber's 26^th start. That is a ton of starts for a college QB. But he's been starting since he was redshirt freshman. The good thing about Weber has always been his completion percentage. He's always been around 60%. Against the Orange(men) he was struggling mightily around 30%.

And the most perplexing part of the game was the lack of balls thrown towards Adam Decker. He is clearly our best player on offense, which is a little disheartening considering he is a tall slow white guy playing wide out. But he makes plays and has the ability to catch any ball in traffic. He got the ball late in the game, but doesn't excuse the fact he was ignored for 3 quarters.

The good news is, the Gophers walked away with a win. They open their new stadium next week versus the Falcons of the Air Force Academy. I couldn't think of a worse choice for a the first home game, but what do I know? The Academy isn't necessarily a powerhouse, but their spread option causes good defenses problems. Plus, they aren't really a big draw, so a lose looks especially bad. Their D is worse than the gophers, so the game might total in the hundreds.

In other news around the FBS, BYU knocked off the #3 team in the land Oklahoma. I hope Sam Bradford is able to recover from his injury in time for the NFL combine. If he falls out of the top ten, then you'll be less likely to see guys stick around for one more year of college football. He was draft eligible last year, but wanted to stick around for a shot at a national championship. Obviously, that is out the window, but hopefully his future isn't.

The team I was most impressed with is Alabama. They completely man handled Virginia Tech. I was too much of a ninny to bet it, but I did take them in both of my pools. Their O line looked very seasoned considering all of the new starters. And their linebacker corp is just unfair. Hightower and McLain sound like a crappy action movie, but they are 2 Bama LB's who are 6'4" 250 and move like race cars. I know I picked Ole Miss to win the SEC west, but I'm now leaning more towards Bama.

It's hard to quantify who looks worse, the ACC or the Big Ten, but it doesn't look like either will be competing for a National Championship this season. The best team in the ACC got clobbered by Bama. Illinois, a team picked by many to be a dark horse B10 title team, got thumped by a rebuilding Mizzou. PSU and Michigan won easily but they second teams were pretty ineffective in the second half's which is a clear sign that they aren't a very deep team. Add that with OSU inability to close out a severly out classed Navy team, and there is no reason to consider these two conferences in the National Championship discussion.

Two more games left on the docket tonight. The Big East opens their season with Cincinnati, last years champ headed to Rutgers. Rutgers is giving 4.5 in this one. Rutgers loses some talent this year, but they have a the best O line/D Line combo in the big east. Brian Kelly has been a miracle worker at Cinci and won the conf title last year even after using every QB on his roster. I'm giving the points in this game and feel pretty confident about it. It's worth 2 units.

FSU plays host to Miami. I think both of these squads are loaded with talent and this game could probably go either way. I look for a close game that is dominated by defense. I'll take the points and hope that this one comes down to a field goal. Miami +6.5.

 

Handicapping Challenge

A couple of buddie sand I, have been doing a handicapping challenge for that last 4 years. Basically, we pick 5 games against the spread every week, but we must pick the ESPN College Gameday game, Sunday night and Monday night football game. We started doing it the year after Tim thought he could pick games a 60% clip. Believe it or not, he wasn't even close. Easiest bet I've ever won.

Were doing it this year so I'll post my picks here as well as email them to others in the challenge.

BSU -3 vs Oregon.  BSU is great against the spread at home.  Unless there is some signifcant change, they are a must bet at home.  I know they beat the Ducks last year and they'll be looking for revenge, but I still like BSU in this game. 

Bama -6.5 vs VT.  They are setting an interesting precedence.  I like the early season game at an alternate location.  I could see them doing this all over the east coast.  VT lost there second best offense player in the offseason and that is going to hurt going up against bama's D who returns 9 starters and held teams to 75 yards rushing per game last year.  I think this one will be close, so the line has me staying away in real life, but here, I have to go with Bama.  Tyrod Taylor has the ability change this game, I just don't have faith he can do it.  If your going to watch the game, keep an eye out for Rashard Carmichael.  He's my boy.

ACC/Big East Preview

Today and today only, you get two blogs for the price of one. Or, I'm just to lazy to break these two conferences up. These two are probably the most competitive conferences which unfortunately for them also means that they don't have a legit national championship caliber team. While Va Tech is probably the most talented of the bunch, FSU, Rutgers, WVU, Pittsburgh, Clemson, Miami and GT are all in the running to win their respective conference championships.

ACC Atlantic Division

Team	Predicted Record	Notes
FSU	9-3	Going out on a limb on this one. The Sep 7th game vs Miami will let us know who the cream of the ACC is right away. They have a pretty tough non-conf slate for a big time school, with BYU, USF and Florida on the docket. Aside from Fla, I see them losing @ NC and @ Clemson. Too much talent and coaching for this team not to take the next step.
Clemson	8-4	They have 4 tough road games vs GT, Miami, NC State and SC. I think they'd be lucky to win one of those. Plus they have home games vs FSU and Wake. In no way are those gimme's. Highly touted Willy Korn takes over the starting QB spot. I have some significant concerns over their offense. Their D should be near the top of the FBS.
NC State	7-5	I'm a big Tom O'Brien fan. I think he builds programs the right way. I think they take another step this year and finish with a winning record.
Wake	7-5	I met Jim Grobe a few months ago. I had a good talk with him. I asked him if he thought the fact that nearly everyone recruits in Florida negatively affects FSU and Miami thus leading to the lousy teams they've had in the recent past. He thought it had more to do with QB play. I found that interesting considering that Chris Weinke and Gino Torretta where Heisman winners and turned out to be fairly lousy QB's in the NFL. Great coach though. But they could be in for a scare this weekend. Baylor is for real.
BC	5-7	There is no way you can change coaches like underwear and expect to maintain the same level of success year in and year out. It just doesn't work that way in college football. They lost their projected starting QB in the offseason, so I really think they'll struggle on offense.
MD	5-7	Did you see that Ralph Friedgen lost 100 pounds? Not much of the way of returning starters, so I think they'll struggle this year. But the Fridge has had success when people doubt him especially with good QB play.

 

ACC Coastal Division

Team	Predicted Record	Notes
Va Tech	10-2	They have a legit shot to upset Alabama this weekend, but they'd have a better shot if Darren Evans wasn't out for the year. Frank Beamer is one of the best in the business, so he'll get someone to step up. On a side note, I have an friend, whose son plays for this team. We watched his sons high school football team win the MD state championship. Great game. I see them losing to Bama and @GT. Otherwise, their D, special teams and Tyrod Taylor are still good enough to carry them through the ACC.
GT	9-3	Paul Johnson is turning out to be a pretty good football coach. Surprised? I'm not sure why, the guy turned basically a FCS team into a team that beat Notre Dame for the first time since WWII. So to see him win in the ACC isn't surprising. One more year in his system plus two recruiting classes with his type of guys should lead to even more success. I see L's vs Miami, FSU and the Bulldogs.
Miami	8-4	I think the Hurricanes will struggle early with the tough part of their schedule, but I can see them getting hot towards the end of the season. L's to FSU, OU, Va Tech and Wake .
NC	6-6	I think I might be off on this team, but usually teams that improve 3+ games fall back a little the next year. They are getting more and more talented every year under Butch Davis, but I see L's vs GT, FSU, VT, Miami, BC and NC State.
UVA	4-8	I'm hoping they finish 4-8 and lose to VT just so Al Groh finally gets fired.
Duke	3-9	This is probably a better team than Cutcliffe had last year, but they have a tougher schedule. 15 years since their last bowl game. Wow.

 

 

Odds to Win Conf Championship ACC

Team	Odds to Win
Va Tech	+200
FSU	+230
Clemson	+350
Miami	+450
NC	+540
GT	+580

 

Outside of Va Tech and FSU, I think any of these bets are pretty quality. The ACC is definitely wide open, so getting better than 3-1 for one of the top 5 or 6 teams seems like a good bet to me. My favorites are GT and Miami.

Team	Wins	Odds Over	Odds Under
Va Tech	9.5	+150	-190
FSU	8	+190	-250
Clemson	8.5	+105	-135
Miami	8	+180	-240
NC	8.5	+160	-210
GT	8.5	-105	-125
Maryland	6	+170	-220
NC State	8	+200	-260

 

Boy, I expected to see some good one's here, but this is probably the worst lines I've seen.

 

Big East

 

Team	Predicted Record	Notes
Rutgers	10-2	Their schedule works out better than the other Big East competitors. I don't think they are drastically better than USF, Pitt or WVU, but playing your tough games at home sure does help.
Pitt	8-4	Losing a player like Leshon McCoy is a big shot to the system. They've never really lived up to they hype of the talent they've recruited, but I still think they'll have a solid year. L's to NC State, Rutgers, ND and WVU.
USF	8-4	A talented team that seems to recruit freakish athletes at the DE position like it's no big deal. Grothe is back for what feels like his 6th season, so this team has a chance in every game they play in. He also makes some dumb mistakes, so the other team is always in it as well. L's vs FSU, Pitt, Rutgers and Miami.
WVU	8-4	No Pat White, but they do have his brother. Maybe they should have talked to Va Tech before they went ahead and recruited him and asked them how Marcus Vick turned out. I think we'll see a steady decline under Bill Stewart. There is usually a reason why a good coaches, takes all the assistants with him except for 1 or 2. Those are the lousy one's. L's vs Auburn, USF, Cinci and Rutgers.
Cinci	6-6	They've won 21 games over the last 2 seasons. They have to be the most under the radar team that has won 21 games over the last 2 years. How is Brian Kelly still coaching here, when Tennessee hired a head coach with zero experience? If he can somehow do it again, the choice job is really up to him. L's vs Rutgers, Oregon St., USF, WVU, Illinois, Pitt.
UCONN	4-8	I'd love to see them beat Notre Dame, but I don't think they can do it this year.
Louisville	3-9	Kragthorpe won't even make it till home coming. He walked into a terrible situation following Petrino and his shenanigans. How was he to know that Petrino cared little about police reports or report cards? He'll get another shot.
Syracuse	2-10	The Gophers open at the Orange. I guess their head coach thinks this is the best job in the FBS, so they have that going for them. This is the same guy who lead the NO Saints offense to the top of the NFL, but wasn't able to get into the playoffs. Another year of futility awaits.

 

Odds to Win Conf Championship Big East

Team	Odds to Win
Pitt	+230
WVU	+230
USF	+230
Rutgers	+450
Cinci	+700
Uconn	+700

 

Vegas is literally just guessing here. I obviously like Rutgers at 4.5 to one. Not bad odds on the other top 3 teams.

 

Team	Wins	Odds Over	Odds Under
Pitt	7.5	-165	+130
WVU	8.5	Even	-130
USF	8	-110	-120
Rutgers	8	-300	+220
Uconn	8.5	+185	-245

 

Even less to get excited about here. Tell me, doesn't it seem weird that Rutgers is essentially picked 4^th by Vegas to win the conference, but the odds for them to win 8 games is at -300?

SEC Preview

I’ve sort of fallen off the wagon recently on updating the blog, but I think I’ll be able to finish all the major conferences by kick off on Thursday. From where I stand, I’ll only have the Big East and ACC left after today. I’ll thinking I might even combine the good teams from those conferences with the BSU, BYU, Utah, TCU, Notre Dame and call it a week. We’ll see how things go tomorrow and Wednesday.

On to the SEC. It’s really hard to argue that this is the best conference in the FBS. If you feel like arguing that point, just look at the caliber of coaches. Nick Saban, Les Miles, Urban Miles, and Da Old Ball Coach are all National Championship winners. Phil Fulmer was let go because he hadn’t won a NC in ten years. Houston Nutt and Mark Richt would probably be huge hirings in any other conferences, but are pretty much common place in the SEC.

So who can beat Florida? After their home lose to Ole Miss last year, they ran the tables like no one else probably ever has. Not only did they win every game by double digits after, they covered. There is really no other way to explain their dominance. I’d compare it the the NFC’s run of Superbowls in the late 80’s. Just the world’s easiest bet. It’s hard not to jump on them early and often and hope they keep up the run.

SEC West

Team	Predicted Record	Notes
Ole Miss	12-0	I’m going out on a limb here, but I really think this team is the perfect mix of talent and coaching. Houston Nutt has walked into a great situation. There is no way he would have ever been able to convince Snead to transfer, but he lucked into it after Orgeron was canned. Orgeron on the other hand, was a lousy coach but an amazing recruiter. Toughest games at home. Good year to hang out at the ‘grove’.
Bama	11-1	Outside of losing at Ole Miss, they should have a great season. They have tough opener on Saturday in ATL vs Va Tech. Get by the Hokies and they should roll until the head to Oxford for a game against the Rebels. They have LSU at home and could easily win the SEC.
LSU	8-4	Very talented team. If they had Ole Miss’s schedule, I’d say they go undefeated. But they have to play @UGA, vs Gators, @ Bama and @ Ole Miss. Knowing Les Miles, they win at least one of those.
Arkansas	7-5	Nice bounce back year for the Razorbacks. A guy in my office is a Razorback fan and he continually reminisces back to the SWC days. I remind him that those days are over and they screwed up by letting Nutt go, no matter who he slept with. The same guy also makes a sound like Golum every time he clears his throat. He’s also one of those guys who makes nicknames for everything. Like when he asks if you want to walk to the post office he says, “do you wanna go postal?” or for ice cream “do you wanna cream?” They use formula for an average team to make a bowl. 4 cupkaes and 3 conf wins. Seweee!!!!
Auburn	6-6	War Eagle sneaks back into a bowl game in honor of Felix’s return from a deployment. I find it interesting that they brought int Gus Malzahn after last years experiment with the spread was a big failure. Malzahns’ offense isn’t even really the spread. It goes beyond that. The things he did at Tulsa were pretty remarkable, producing 569 yards a game. The talent is there on D for them to be scary. They play WVU at home Sep 19, so we’ll learn all we need to that week.
MSU	3-9	Is there enough talent in Mississippi for to bowl caliber teams in the state of Mississippi? I’m not sure. Dan Mullen has a lot of work to do here. Croom wasn’t a world beater when it came to recruiting.

SEC East

Team	Predicted Record	Notes
FLA	12-0	It’s not just that this is a talented team that returns just about everyone, including every 2-deep player on their defense, they also have a very favorable schedule considering they play in the SEC. Their toughest road game is at LSU and while the ‘Cocks play the gators tough, I don’t think that game will challenge them this year. FSU looks good on paper, but they were dismantled by the Gators last year.
UGA	9-2	Last years team was looked upon like a disappointment, but I think this years tea@OSU, nor in the ‘World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party’, but otherwise they’ll be a favorite in every game. Hats off to their AD BTW. They scheduled OSU and GT in the same season. Neither of those are gimme’s.
Tennessee	8-3	I think they can make a bowl game just on their defense. I feel pretty lousy about Phil Fulmer. Losing that job was probably his worst nightmare. This team was a quarter away from being the SEC champion 2 seasons ago and that talent level has not dropped that far.
South Carolina	5-7	I’ve started to doubt the visor’s abilities. He sort of reminds me of Bobby Night at Texas Tech. Yeah, the teams are better than they were before he arrived, but they’re not nearly as good as his old teams. Also, I think his offensive schemes have become sort of passé. He’s pretty conventional when you consider all the intricate offenses out there. They should have followed the golden rule of cupcake scheduling, because games @ NC State and vs Clemson are going to make them miss a bowl game.
Vandy	5-7	Great season for the commodores last year, but can they put two of them together? Probably not. Scheduling GT in the middle of the season will probably turn out to be a bad idea.
Kentucky	4-8	I think they’ll beat MSU at home, otherwise all there other wins will come in the non-conf games. Brooks has done some amazing things with lesser talent, but nothing makes me thing this is the year for them.

Possible Wagers

Odds to win Conf Championship

Team	Odds to Win
FLA	-320
Bama	+280
LSU	+300
Ole Miss	+460
UGA	+580
Auburn	+700

Nothing too exciting here. I’m thinking a good value bet might be LSU and Ole Miss, but I really don’t like my chances with Bama in the west as well.

Team	Wins	Odds Over	Odds Under
FLA	11	-105	-125
Bama	9.5	+135	-175
LSU	8.5	EVEN	-130
OLE MISS	9	-165	+130
UGA	8.5	-110	-120
AUBURN	7.5	+170	-220
Tennessee	7	+150	-190

Even money on Florida going undefeated? Not a bad bet in my book considering they are likely to be 7 point and up favorites in every game they play. Not a ton of upside at even money, but I don’t think it’s a bad bet. I like Bama at +9.5. They can lose twice and you’d still win. If you like them this weekend, where they are a 6.5 point favorite, then this is a good bet. Even if they lose to LSU and Ole Miss, they would win.

I’d be more interested in Ole Miss, if the line was a little bit better. I did read something about Ole Miss the other day from football Outsiders, whom I’d highly recommend, that said that teams with big increases one year, usually fall off the next because the overall talent/coaching hasn’t changed that much. Well, in this case, I disagree, since I think Nutt is 5 times the game day coach as Orgeron and the talent level of Ole Miss never peformed up to its level in the past. But if you have $25 bucks to spend, pick up the Football Almanac http://www.amazon.com/Football-Outsiders-Almanac-2009-Essential/dp/1448648459. It’s basically all I read for the NFL any more. They’ve added a little more to their college coverage, but they can’t touch what Phil Steele produces.