Bill Simmons breaks down Belichick's 4th and 2 and makes his week 11 NFL picks - ESPN

Bill Simmons breaks down Belichick's 4th and 2 and makes his week 11 NFL picks - ESPN

So far, this is the best article I've read that discredits all the stats junkies and their belief that Belichick made the correct decision. I love the Smartfootball and Football Outsider guys, but this was just the wrong decision. Besides the fact the blew the minute before this play happened.

Also, Bill has a good theory about hotel rooms.

Replacing Charlie

I just can’t write enough about Charlie Weiss’ impending doom. It’s just a great story. Here is a guy who took advantage of his alma mater by selling them on the notion that some NFL team was disillusioned enough to offer him a head coaching job after 7 games as the head coach of the Irish. All the sane people in the world realized it was a giant hoax to get an extension, but I guess there aren’t a lot of sane Irish Catholics. So now, a few years has passed and people have come to realize that Charlie isn’t cut out to be a head coach and possibly, he wasn’t that good of an offensive coordinator in the first place. If I remember correctly, Tom Brady and company didn’t start breaking records until he left town.

With two games remaining in the season, the Irish need to win big over UCONN and upset a red hot Stanford team on the road to save their coaches job. Some people might disagree, but I think it’s over if that doesn’t happen. With the likely exodus of upperclassmen to the NFL draft, next year looks even worse for them and it will be hard to sell the administration that they are on the right path.

The real question is who should replace Charlie? Rumors will swirl about Urban Meyer or Bob Stoops, but those guys aren’t dumb. They might use that info to get a raise, but they have jobs that are far better than the Notre Dame position.

Brian Kelly, the Cincinnati head coach, has to be the number 1 choice for the Irish. He brings with him an offensive system that seems to work with whoever is running the show. Additionally, he’ll come in with a level of familiarity in terms of Midwest recruiting. Kelly is the head football coach at a basketball school, in a football state. No matter how good he does at Cincy, he’ll always play second fiddle to Jim Tressel at Ohio State and to the basketball team. Outside of a pay raise, I don’t know what else would keep him in Cincy.

If Notre Dame can’t get Kelly, I could see them possibly looking at Tommy Tuberville. Tommy doesn’t bring with him a proven offensive system, but one thing he does offer is the ability to win big games. He owned Alabama most of the time he was at Auburn. He was also able to bring in a ton of great talent, but that may be hard to replicate because of Notre Dames academic standards. This hire would work best if they were able to hire him along with a proven offensive coordinator. I heard Jim Zorn might be available.

Outside of the big names, I think the best fit for Notre Dame would be a great system guy. Someone who’s system has proven to be successful in almost any situation. The two guys who immediately come to mind are June Jones and Paul Johnson. Jones was somehow able to win and win big at Hawaii. Now, the competition isn’t amazing in the WAC, but it’s also one of the more difficult recruiting locations, so he had his work cut out for him. Additionally, he’s turned around SMU in two seasons and that seemed impossible just 18 months ago.

Johnson has a pretty good thing going at Georgia Tech, but Notre Dame is still a better job. Johnson has only been at GT for two years, so buying him out may be cheap compared to anyone else they are looking at. Johnson’s flexbone option has already proven to be successful at the BCS conference level and would certainlyl has shortcomings on the defensive side of the ball, but in this day and age of college football, everyone does.

every 4 work will in South Bend given their unique scheduling. If a team only sees the option once every 4 years, it becomes even more difficult to defend. He still has shortcomings on the defensive side of the ball, but in this day and age of college football, everyone does.

Music 2009

I was thinking about doing a top ten list for this year’s, but that is pretty boring. Any numbskull with a blog can make a top ten list. Instead of a top ten list, I thought I’d make a specific category for my favorite CD’s so far this year.

Album my daughter is most likely to steal from me in her teens: Green Day’s 21^st Century Breakdown.

Not by any stretch my favorite CD of the year and I’m in no way a big GD fan, but I can see this being the type of music kids still listen to 10 years from now. Aside from being such a popular band, GD has done the best job at making popular anti-establishment music. Much our generation we stole the Doors and Jimmy Hendrix, our kids will steal Green Day. Writing that is sort of depressing since we realize GD’s shortcoming is their ability to create punk pop like no one else. Our kids will just want it since Wikipedia will tell them that Green Day was cool.

Album most likely to be a trivia question on a Genius Edition of Trivial Pursuit: Steve Martin’s ‘The Crow: New Songs for the Five-string Banjo’

“This comedian released a critically acclaimed record in 2009, years after his last funny movie”. I was totally surprised when I listened to the album and found it sort of enjoyable. It is what it says it is; new banjo music. No dueling banjos or hillbilly music, but Steve Martin walling away.

The album that would have been great if it was 4 songs shorter: “Street Sweeper Social Club”.

The released two teaser songs associated with the NINJA tour, and I was really excited. It was like Rage against the Machine mixed with the Flobots. And that is how the CD starts off. I’m not sure I’m ready to describe how the CD ends, but let’s just say it’s like me 3 hours after a 10oz Red Bull.

Album most likely to be remixed into a dance CD: “The XX”.

I might be dating myself here, but do they still do that sort of thing? I always liked it when they took a good song and dropped a techno beat behind it. I’m more likely to walk into a Church than a club at this point in my life. I digress. Great CD, but not something you’d want to listen to on a run. Angelo put it best by saying “perfect for the cold rainy days of DC”. I haven’t gotten my fill of this CD and I’ve been listening to it daily for the last 2 weeks. Love it.

Biggest disappointment from someone who obviously knows better: The Dead Weather’s “Horehound”.

My open letter to Jack White: Dear Jack, how can you make a CD where you basically don’t do anything besides play the drums? I know you’re busy wasting everyone time bedding your supermodel wife and putting out forgettable Raconteurs (yeah, I said it, FORGETABLE!) albums, so you have to limit yourself a little. But please remember, that your most critically acclaimed and most popular music involved Meg playing the drums. Now, I know you’ve done a good job at hiding it, but we both know that Meg has the IQ of a donkey. But your ability to carry her through some amazing albums and unforgettable performances is part of what makes you my musical idol. Horehound just makes me nostalgic for the old days when you did all the difficult things for a two person band. Now you do the easy part on 4 person band and the sum of the parts is barely mediocre. Please Jack, take this time to realize your window is closing and your opportunity for great music is limited. You can make average CD’s with so and so from a band that just couldn’t make it over the hump, or you can make amazing music with Meg the drum playing donkey. Make the right choice. Jon

The Album I’ll be listening to in 5 years: Modest Mouse “No One’s first and your next”

MM is the last band that I really want to see in concert that are still good enough to make me want to see them. This isn’t there best work, but it’s hard to quantify what they do since most of their CD’s sound adlibbed at the time they recorded them. I’ll be listening to them for at least the next 5 years, but I’m not sure they’ll stand the test of time. I’m not sure you can listen to Modest Mouse on the way to the soccer game or Disney world.

The album I’ll be listening to in 10 years: “Wilco the Album”

Okay, it’s official, I’m a Wilco fan, but I have no real desire to see them in concert if not for the fear that the place will smell like patchouli oil and pot. And everyone knows I hate smell of patchouli oil. This is a very solid album if you are a Wilco fan. Their albums are produced to the point of perfection. There is never a doubt about what sound they are trying to make. If these guys had died in a fiery plane crash 4 years ago, they’d be huge and everyone would have a copy of Yankee Hotel Foxtrot. But since planes don’t crash like they used to, they are forced to make music that changes with the times. This album is easy enough for old people to listen, but enough rock and roll to make you feel young.

Owning Mahoney

One of the greatest gambling movies of all time is Owning Mahoney. It was Philip Seymour Hoffman before he became ultra famous. Don't get me wrong, he's was famous at the time, but he'd always played second fiddle. This was one of his first leading roles. Now the movie is great, but the book is simply amazing but it goes by the title 'Owning Maloney'. I guess they didn't think Americans would be into a movie with a guy with that last name. Anyways, he was a compulsive gambler to the nth degree. In his mind, he believed that eventually he'd just break even. So he'd call his bookie and say "I'll take the away teams in the American League and the home teams in the National League for a thousand each." Which to me sounds like the most awful way to bet ever since there is no conceivable way you could watch all those games, so you are basically just going to wake up in the morning, check the paper and see if you lost. Buy a powerball.

Two points I want to make off this intro; first gambling on sports is fun for two primary reasons. First, it gives you a reason to cheer on teams you'd normally ignore. Secondly, it gives you a chance to evaluate teams like you would apples at the super market. You can squeeze them and smell them all day, but you won't know what's in store until you take a bite.

For this weeks pics, I pulled a Mahoney and took all the away teams in the NFL and the home teams in college. And Sunday night, I'll be eating dry ribs with a diet coke.

Here are the pics for this week. I'll be traveling for the next 2 weeks, so results may come in slow. I'll have to see what my internet situation looks like. I'll take the home teams in college and the away teams in the NFL.

Texas -18 vs TT; Hard to take tech in this game considering that leach has never won at Austin plus the revenge factor is going to weigh in big time. Not exactly a game I'd target otherwise because you never know what will happen, but Texas is clearly an 18 point favorite when it comes to talent.

Iowa -6 vs Arizona; tough road trip for Arizona. Iowa has a very strong O line/D line combo and this spread is only this low because of the slow start they had v N Iowa. That won't happen again. Iowa has found a rhythm with two good running backs and will be able to win this game by more than a TD at home.

NFL

Colts -3 @ Miami; I'm not sure how Miami will score in this game. Aside from their gimmick formations, they just don't pose a threat. This seems to happen the second year of every new system for Pennington. His little lob passes start getting timed. I worry about the line because the colts just don't close people out, but I can see them winning this one by ten.

Gints +3 @ Dallas; What is the over under on the number of punts that hit the scoreboard? I'm going with 6. That may sound high, but I think the punters in the league will be out to prove a point. BTW, do you think Jerry bribed the Boys punter not to hit it? In my eyes, the Gints are the better team. While the boys looked great last week, this week they play a real team that can actually score points on offense.


Seattle +1.5 @ Niners; pretty surprised to see this line. I guess the book makers expected Arizona to be good this year. Defensively, the two teams are a draw, but offensively, I don't think its close. I'll take the points any day in this one.

Heading into Monday Night

I was going to throw together a recap of Saturday night's college football games and the first games on Sunday, but I'm going to skip all that. There was some good info on the USC/OSU game that I posted on Facebook. I scratched my head all game long why OSU didn't throw the ball short to the slot receiver. Could there be an easier throw? Puzzling. I wonder what it would take for Tressel to hand over the play calling. I think he'd just assume retire.

As far as gambling is concerned, I'm on a hot streak. I'm 9-2 ATS this week headed into Monday night. If I was playing black jack, I'd probably have walked away from the table. On the flip side, if I were playing craps, I'd be pressing my bets, yelling 'big shooter', doing shots and tipping the dealers. Well this isn't either of those situations. But, the house still wins and usually not just the vig. While vegas generally sets the line for the most amount of action, you'll see some scenarios where that isn't the case. In some instances, Vegas is happy with the line and won't adjust no matter how much cash is going one way. A perfect example would be the two biggest games from Saturday. Tons of money was pouring in on USC and Notre Dame, the two road favorites, but the line didn't move. What happened? The dogs covered or won straight up. I was smart enough to see the USC game coming, but missed the Michigan game. I just couldn't get my head around Michigan stopping Tate or Floyd.

It's one of the things I evaluate every week when making my picks. Sportsbook.com actually posts what percentages of wagers are placed on whom. If I really like a game but see so does 95% of the population, I take pause and reevaluate. If the line hasn't shifted, I'll either stay away or look for a reason to reverse. If the line is moving along with the money, then hopefully I got in early and didn't have to work with the bigger line. If you are reading this, which I doubt anyone does, and are saying to yourself, 'wait, you actually think about this stuff?' Yes, handicapping is more than just knowing what the starting QB's name is and what time the game starts. Trying to use deductive reasoning to figure out who is going to win is the best part.

As for Monday night's games I picked the Chargers -9.5 at Oakland earlier this week. The line opened at 7 (3 months ago) and has shifted up to follow the money. The money is chasing the chargers with 75% of the action, but there is probably enough money line action on the Raider at 4-1 to balance it out. While I'll stick with my pick, I really wouldn't wager this one too hard unless you were chasing your losses from earlier in the week. I know home field doesn't matter much in the NFL, but 10 points is a bunch to give up to any road team even one that is far more talented.

I didn't make a pick for the Pats/Bills game, but this one scares me. First, the Pats have a new O coordinator, a QB who hasn't played a real game in a year, an O line that is near the bottom of the league and a defense that is 80% new. Not exactly the recipe for success. Lucky for them, they get to play the Bills. There were 3 teams who fired their O coordinators in the preseason. 2 of them lost and didn't cover. That doesn't bode well for the Bills who also have an O line that is considerably worse than the Pats'. Two touchdowns is a bunch to give up in the NFL especially with some much change for the Pats, but I don't foresee anyway that the Bills keep this closer the 10 especially if the run the no huddle for any period of time. NE is 8-2 ATS vs Buff in their last meetings. Both were home games for NE and one was the season opener in 2006. While that was a good team, they really didn't have the fire power they have now. With all that said, I've talked myself into taking the Pats tonight.

And since I'm riding a heater, I might as well make it a parlay!

 

Week 2 Picks

If you missed last week, a group of friends and I pick 2 college games and 3 NFL games every week against the spread. We have to pick the college game that hosts ESPN's College Game day, the Sunday Night Game and the Monday night game. this week there are 2 Monday nighters, so you can pick either one. I was a perfect 2-0 last week, and I jumped out to an early lead. Hopefully I can keep things rolling.

OSU +7 vs USC: Ask yourself why this line is so low? If Navy was nearly able to go into the big house and pull of the upset, why isn’t this line more representative of what happened last year when these two teams played. The answer is, because vegas knows better. 85% of the people betting this game are all over USC, but the line isn’t moving. Plus, I don’t like freshman on the road and I’m not entirely sold on USC run game. It’s good, but so is OSUs D.

Boise St -36.5 vs Miami, Oh: This is a ton of points to give up, but M of O is probably the worst team in a pretty weak MAC conference. The west coast travel isn’t going to do them any favors. Plus, BSU loves covering at home and needs to destroy teams to stay in the BCS bowl talk.


NFL

GB -4 vs Chi town: I think Cutler is a stud, but I don’t think the bears have enough weapons on O for this to beat the Pack. I worry a little about the Pack’s D, but I think Rodgers throws for 3 TD’s for the cover.

Bolts -9.5 @ Oakland: I wish I got on this line earlier, but SD is one of the 3 best teams in the AFC, and Oak is one of the worst in the NFL. I think Russel throws a couple of picks and this gets ugly early. I hate these games because I’ll wake up at 4 to watch the last part of the game and the score will already be 31-10. I’ll be mad because it’s 4 in the AM and the announcers are talking about driving across the golden gate bridge.

San Fran +7 vs Cards: Mark my words, this is a down year for Arizona. San Fran ended last season pretty strong and is a team on the upside. I think they’ll be able to eek this one out. Don’t shy away from the money line on this one.

On to the NFL

I’ve spent an inordinate amount of time this past summer review college football teams and where they are headed. Unfortunately, my time spent on college football has significantly limited the amount of time I’ve spend on the NFL. But a lack of preparation didn’t prevent me from getting a college degree, so why would it stop me from predicting the results of the NFL season. I’m just going to cover the playoff teams briefly.

AFC
1. San Diego: While I think their talent is on par with New England and they have a much weaker coaching staff, I also think they have a much easier schedule and are bound to be lucky than they were last year. The whole Tila Tequila thing has got to have the Bolts fans worried, but I think the team named for a “whale’s vagina” will be able to bounce back. They are favored by 9 this weekend and I like them to cover.
2. New England: Tom Brady is back, along with Randy Moss and Wes Welker. With those three alone, they should put up 35 points a game. I’m a little worried about their defense because they have lost a lot of key players over the last few years. But I wouldn’t doubt it too much since Bellichik is a defense guru and knows that depth is as important a studs especially on D.
3. Pittsburgh: This team always finds a way to win. They have good depth and are well coached.
4. Colts: No Harrison this year, but I don’t think WR will be an issue for them this season. If their O line can give Peyton time and if they can slow people down just a little on D, then they’ll be a playoff team easy. If Peyton gets beat up because of lousy pass protection, then they could be in trouble. I think the Texans are their biggest threat this year. The Jags and Titans will dip off.
5. Houston: I like their schedule better than the Ravens and Dolphins although I think the other two are better on paper. If they can keep their QB standing, they’ll be in the playoffs.
6. Ravens: I worry about their offense scoring on a consistent basis, but their D is probably good enough to carry them into the playoffs.

NFC
1. GInts: I really like this team this year. They are still very experienced after winning the Super Bowl 2 seasons ago. I think they’ll be able to move the ball consistently on offense but I’m a little concerned about their execution in the red zone. I’ve read in a couple of places that teams who struggle in the red zone one year but are good otherwise usually rebound. Others say losing Plaxico was the reason for the struggles. We’ll see.
2. GB: Love the Packers this year. I think they might have the 2nd best offense outside of New England. I’m slightly concerned about the switch to the 3-4 defense, but the Jets did it when Mangini took over and they were fairly effective. The division is pretty tough, but their schedule looks good otherwise.
3. New Orleans: They open vs the Lions with a 13 point line. They should be able to score enough to compensate for a very ordinary defense. The NFC west is always a crap shoot and I’d rather have my money on Drew Brees then the other 3 QB’s.
4. Seattle: I think we’ll see them open up the offense a little more this year as they move away from the old fashioned west coast offense to more spread formations. I think Hasselbeck will thrive with a new head coach.
5. Cowboys: This pick is contingent on Tony Romo playing 16 games. If I were Jerry Jones, I’d sign Jeff Garcia for an insurance policy because the offense has really sputtered when he’s been injured. Garcia has a similar style and would probably keep them rolling into the playoffs if Romo got hurt.
6. Vikes: I don’t like the Favre signing very much if only for the fact the guy is old and pretty out of shape. I’d honestly like to have Garcia instead of Favre. Obviously he doesn’t have the same track record, but the guy isn’t falling apart at the seams like Favre. The vikes D and running game is good enough to carry them most of the way, but I don’t think they’ll be as good as most of the Purple People think.

Week 1 Recap

It was great to see college football back on the TV. Watching college football in my time zone takes a little bit more pre-planning than back in the states. The first kickoff for me doesn't start until 6 pm. That means the last kickoff of the night usually happens around 3 or 4 am. Of course, the best games are generally the later kickoffs. My ritual is to watch the first games and by the time they are wrapping up, Alicia is in bed. Generally, the 2^nd game is usually a Pac-10 game and is of less importance. About half time of the second set of games is when I go down for a nap. If for some reason, those games are really appealing, then I just pop a red bull and hope the wife lets me sleep in.

This weekend started off with the Gophers/Orange(men) being shown at 6 pm. Alicia was going to a movie with a friend, so Lucy was 'extra' tired and went to bed a little early so daddy could concentrate. It was an excruciating game to watch. The Gophers have switched their offense to the spread option of the last 2 seasons to a more pro style offense that closely resembles what they were doing 3 seasons ago when they were consistently one of the top ten teams in the FBS in rushing every year. Well let me re-phrase that, the formations looked similar, the results where not even close. The run game was pretty anemic, but was some how out done by the lousy QB play and overall play calling. This was Adam Weber's 26^th start. That is a ton of starts for a college QB. But he's been starting since he was redshirt freshman. The good thing about Weber has always been his completion percentage. He's always been around 60%. Against the Orange(men) he was struggling mightily around 30%.

And the most perplexing part of the game was the lack of balls thrown towards Adam Decker. He is clearly our best player on offense, which is a little disheartening considering he is a tall slow white guy playing wide out. But he makes plays and has the ability to catch any ball in traffic. He got the ball late in the game, but doesn't excuse the fact he was ignored for 3 quarters.

The good news is, the Gophers walked away with a win. They open their new stadium next week versus the Falcons of the Air Force Academy. I couldn't think of a worse choice for a the first home game, but what do I know? The Academy isn't necessarily a powerhouse, but their spread option causes good defenses problems. Plus, they aren't really a big draw, so a lose looks especially bad. Their D is worse than the gophers, so the game might total in the hundreds.

In other news around the FBS, BYU knocked off the #3 team in the land Oklahoma. I hope Sam Bradford is able to recover from his injury in time for the NFL combine. If he falls out of the top ten, then you'll be less likely to see guys stick around for one more year of college football. He was draft eligible last year, but wanted to stick around for a shot at a national championship. Obviously, that is out the window, but hopefully his future isn't.

The team I was most impressed with is Alabama. They completely man handled Virginia Tech. I was too much of a ninny to bet it, but I did take them in both of my pools. Their O line looked very seasoned considering all of the new starters. And their linebacker corp is just unfair. Hightower and McLain sound like a crappy action movie, but they are 2 Bama LB's who are 6'4" 250 and move like race cars. I know I picked Ole Miss to win the SEC west, but I'm now leaning more towards Bama.

It's hard to quantify who looks worse, the ACC or the Big Ten, but it doesn't look like either will be competing for a National Championship this season. The best team in the ACC got clobbered by Bama. Illinois, a team picked by many to be a dark horse B10 title team, got thumped by a rebuilding Mizzou. PSU and Michigan won easily but they second teams were pretty ineffective in the second half's which is a clear sign that they aren't a very deep team. Add that with OSU inability to close out a severly out classed Navy team, and there is no reason to consider these two conferences in the National Championship discussion.

Two more games left on the docket tonight. The Big East opens their season with Cincinnati, last years champ headed to Rutgers. Rutgers is giving 4.5 in this one. Rutgers loses some talent this year, but they have a the best O line/D Line combo in the big east. Brian Kelly has been a miracle worker at Cinci and won the conf title last year even after using every QB on his roster. I'm giving the points in this game and feel pretty confident about it. It's worth 2 units.

FSU plays host to Miami. I think both of these squads are loaded with talent and this game could probably go either way. I look for a close game that is dominated by defense. I'll take the points and hope that this one comes down to a field goal. Miami +6.5.

 

Handicapping Challenge

A couple of buddie sand I, have been doing a handicapping challenge for that last 4 years. Basically, we pick 5 games against the spread every week, but we must pick the ESPN College Gameday game, Sunday night and Monday night football game. We started doing it the year after Tim thought he could pick games a 60% clip. Believe it or not, he wasn't even close. Easiest bet I've ever won.

Were doing it this year so I'll post my picks here as well as email them to others in the challenge.

BSU -3 vs Oregon.  BSU is great against the spread at home.  Unless there is some signifcant change, they are a must bet at home.  I know they beat the Ducks last year and they'll be looking for revenge, but I still like BSU in this game. 

Bama -6.5 vs VT.  They are setting an interesting precedence.  I like the early season game at an alternate location.  I could see them doing this all over the east coast.  VT lost there second best offense player in the offseason and that is going to hurt going up against bama's D who returns 9 starters and held teams to 75 yards rushing per game last year.  I think this one will be close, so the line has me staying away in real life, but here, I have to go with Bama.  Tyrod Taylor has the ability change this game, I just don't have faith he can do it.  If your going to watch the game, keep an eye out for Rashard Carmichael.  He's my boy.

ACC/Big East Preview

Today and today only, you get two blogs for the price of one. Or, I'm just to lazy to break these two conferences up. These two are probably the most competitive conferences which unfortunately for them also means that they don't have a legit national championship caliber team. While Va Tech is probably the most talented of the bunch, FSU, Rutgers, WVU, Pittsburgh, Clemson, Miami and GT are all in the running to win their respective conference championships.

ACC Atlantic Division

Team	Predicted Record	Notes
FSU	9-3	Going out on a limb on this one. The Sep 7th game vs Miami will let us know who the cream of the ACC is right away. They have a pretty tough non-conf slate for a big time school, with BYU, USF and Florida on the docket. Aside from Fla, I see them losing @ NC and @ Clemson. Too much talent and coaching for this team not to take the next step.
Clemson	8-4	They have 4 tough road games vs GT, Miami, NC State and SC. I think they'd be lucky to win one of those. Plus they have home games vs FSU and Wake. In no way are those gimme's. Highly touted Willy Korn takes over the starting QB spot. I have some significant concerns over their offense. Their D should be near the top of the FBS.
NC State	7-5	I'm a big Tom O'Brien fan. I think he builds programs the right way. I think they take another step this year and finish with a winning record.
Wake	7-5	I met Jim Grobe a few months ago. I had a good talk with him. I asked him if he thought the fact that nearly everyone recruits in Florida negatively affects FSU and Miami thus leading to the lousy teams they've had in the recent past. He thought it had more to do with QB play. I found that interesting considering that Chris Weinke and Gino Torretta where Heisman winners and turned out to be fairly lousy QB's in the NFL. Great coach though. But they could be in for a scare this weekend. Baylor is for real.
BC	5-7	There is no way you can change coaches like underwear and expect to maintain the same level of success year in and year out. It just doesn't work that way in college football. They lost their projected starting QB in the offseason, so I really think they'll struggle on offense.
MD	5-7	Did you see that Ralph Friedgen lost 100 pounds? Not much of the way of returning starters, so I think they'll struggle this year. But the Fridge has had success when people doubt him especially with good QB play.

 

ACC Coastal Division

Team	Predicted Record	Notes
Va Tech	10-2	They have a legit shot to upset Alabama this weekend, but they'd have a better shot if Darren Evans wasn't out for the year. Frank Beamer is one of the best in the business, so he'll get someone to step up. On a side note, I have an friend, whose son plays for this team. We watched his sons high school football team win the MD state championship. Great game. I see them losing to Bama and @GT. Otherwise, their D, special teams and Tyrod Taylor are still good enough to carry them through the ACC.
GT	9-3	Paul Johnson is turning out to be a pretty good football coach. Surprised? I'm not sure why, the guy turned basically a FCS team into a team that beat Notre Dame for the first time since WWII. So to see him win in the ACC isn't surprising. One more year in his system plus two recruiting classes with his type of guys should lead to even more success. I see L's vs Miami, FSU and the Bulldogs.
Miami	8-4	I think the Hurricanes will struggle early with the tough part of their schedule, but I can see them getting hot towards the end of the season. L's to FSU, OU, Va Tech and Wake .
NC	6-6	I think I might be off on this team, but usually teams that improve 3+ games fall back a little the next year. They are getting more and more talented every year under Butch Davis, but I see L's vs GT, FSU, VT, Miami, BC and NC State.
UVA	4-8	I'm hoping they finish 4-8 and lose to VT just so Al Groh finally gets fired.
Duke	3-9	This is probably a better team than Cutcliffe had last year, but they have a tougher schedule. 15 years since their last bowl game. Wow.

 

 

Odds to Win Conf Championship ACC

Team	Odds to Win
Va Tech	+200
FSU	+230
Clemson	+350
Miami	+450
NC	+540
GT	+580

 

Outside of Va Tech and FSU, I think any of these bets are pretty quality. The ACC is definitely wide open, so getting better than 3-1 for one of the top 5 or 6 teams seems like a good bet to me. My favorites are GT and Miami.

Team	Wins	Odds Over	Odds Under
Va Tech	9.5	+150	-190
FSU	8	+190	-250
Clemson	8.5	+105	-135
Miami	8	+180	-240
NC	8.5	+160	-210
GT	8.5	-105	-125
Maryland	6	+170	-220
NC State	8	+200	-260

 

Boy, I expected to see some good one's here, but this is probably the worst lines I've seen.

 

Big East

 

Team	Predicted Record	Notes
Rutgers	10-2	Their schedule works out better than the other Big East competitors. I don't think they are drastically better than USF, Pitt or WVU, but playing your tough games at home sure does help.
Pitt	8-4	Losing a player like Leshon McCoy is a big shot to the system. They've never really lived up to they hype of the talent they've recruited, but I still think they'll have a solid year. L's to NC State, Rutgers, ND and WVU.
USF	8-4	A talented team that seems to recruit freakish athletes at the DE position like it's no big deal. Grothe is back for what feels like his 6th season, so this team has a chance in every game they play in. He also makes some dumb mistakes, so the other team is always in it as well. L's vs FSU, Pitt, Rutgers and Miami.
WVU	8-4	No Pat White, but they do have his brother. Maybe they should have talked to Va Tech before they went ahead and recruited him and asked them how Marcus Vick turned out. I think we'll see a steady decline under Bill Stewart. There is usually a reason why a good coaches, takes all the assistants with him except for 1 or 2. Those are the lousy one's. L's vs Auburn, USF, Cinci and Rutgers.
Cinci	6-6	They've won 21 games over the last 2 seasons. They have to be the most under the radar team that has won 21 games over the last 2 years. How is Brian Kelly still coaching here, when Tennessee hired a head coach with zero experience? If he can somehow do it again, the choice job is really up to him. L's vs Rutgers, Oregon St., USF, WVU, Illinois, Pitt.
UCONN	4-8	I'd love to see them beat Notre Dame, but I don't think they can do it this year.
Louisville	3-9	Kragthorpe won't even make it till home coming. He walked into a terrible situation following Petrino and his shenanigans. How was he to know that Petrino cared little about police reports or report cards? He'll get another shot.
Syracuse	2-10	The Gophers open at the Orange. I guess their head coach thinks this is the best job in the FBS, so they have that going for them. This is the same guy who lead the NO Saints offense to the top of the NFL, but wasn't able to get into the playoffs. Another year of futility awaits.

 

Odds to Win Conf Championship Big East

Team	Odds to Win
Pitt	+230
WVU	+230
USF	+230
Rutgers	+450
Cinci	+700
Uconn	+700

 

Vegas is literally just guessing here. I obviously like Rutgers at 4.5 to one. Not bad odds on the other top 3 teams.

 

Team	Wins	Odds Over	Odds Under
Pitt	7.5	-165	+130
WVU	8.5	Even	-130
USF	8	-110	-120
Rutgers	8	-300	+220
Uconn	8.5	+185	-245

 

Even less to get excited about here. Tell me, doesn't it seem weird that Rutgers is essentially picked 4^th by Vegas to win the conference, but the odds for them to win 8 games is at -300?