If you missed last week, a group of friends and I pick 2 college games and 3 NFL games every week against the spread. We have to pick the college game that hosts ESPN's College Game day, the Sunday Night Game and the Monday night game. this week there are 2 Monday nighters, so you can pick either one. I was a perfect 2-0 last week, and I jumped out to an early lead. Hopefully I can keep things rolling.
OSU +7 vs USC: Ask yourself why this line is so low? If Navy was nearly able to go into the big house and pull of the upset, why isn’t this line more representative of what happened last year when these two teams played. The answer is, because vegas knows better. 85% of the people betting this game are all over USC, but the line isn’t moving. Plus, I don’t like freshman on the road and I’m not entirely sold on USC run game. It’s good, but so is OSUs D.
Boise St -36.5 vs Miami, Oh: This is a ton of points to give up, but M of O is probably the worst team in a pretty weak MAC conference. The west coast travel isn’t going to do them any favors. Plus, BSU loves covering at home and needs to destroy teams to stay in the BCS bowl talk.
NFL
GB -4 vs Chi town: I think Cutler is a stud, but I don’t think the bears have enough weapons on O for this to beat the Pack. I worry a little about the Pack’s D, but I think Rodgers throws for 3 TD’s for the cover.
Bolts -9.5 @ Oakland: I wish I got on this line earlier, but SD is one of the 3 best teams in the AFC, and Oak is one of the worst in the NFL. I think Russel throws a couple of picks and this gets ugly early. I hate these games because I’ll wake up at 4 to watch the last part of the game and the score will already be 31-10. I’ll be mad because it’s 4 in the AM and the announcers are talking about driving across the golden gate bridge.
San Fran +7 vs Cards: Mark my words, this is a down year for Arizona. San Fran ended last season pretty strong and is a team on the upside. I think they’ll be able to eek this one out. Don’t shy away from the money line on this one.
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
On to the NFL
I’ve spent an inordinate amount of time this past summer review college football teams and where they are headed. Unfortunately, my time spent on college football has significantly limited the amount of time I’ve spend on the NFL. But a lack of preparation didn’t prevent me from getting a college degree, so why would it stop me from predicting the results of the NFL season. I’m just going to cover the playoff teams briefly.
AFC
1. San Diego: While I think their talent is on par with New England and they have a much weaker coaching staff, I also think they have a much easier schedule and are bound to be lucky than they were last year. The whole Tila Tequila thing has got to have the Bolts fans worried, but I think the team named for a “whale’s vagina” will be able to bounce back. They are favored by 9 this weekend and I like them to cover.
2. New England: Tom Brady is back, along with Randy Moss and Wes Welker. With those three alone, they should put up 35 points a game. I’m a little worried about their defense because they have lost a lot of key players over the last few years. But I wouldn’t doubt it too much since Bellichik is a defense guru and knows that depth is as important a studs especially on D.
3. Pittsburgh: This team always finds a way to win. They have good depth and are well coached.
4. Colts: No Harrison this year, but I don’t think WR will be an issue for them this season. If their O line can give Peyton time and if they can slow people down just a little on D, then they’ll be a playoff team easy. If Peyton gets beat up because of lousy pass protection, then they could be in trouble. I think the Texans are their biggest threat this year. The Jags and Titans will dip off.
5. Houston: I like their schedule better than the Ravens and Dolphins although I think the other two are better on paper. If they can keep their QB standing, they’ll be in the playoffs.
6. Ravens: I worry about their offense scoring on a consistent basis, but their D is probably good enough to carry them into the playoffs.
NFC
1. GInts: I really like this team this year. They are still very experienced after winning the Super Bowl 2 seasons ago. I think they’ll be able to move the ball consistently on offense but I’m a little concerned about their execution in the red zone. I’ve read in a couple of places that teams who struggle in the red zone one year but are good otherwise usually rebound. Others say losing Plaxico was the reason for the struggles. We’ll see.
2. GB: Love the Packers this year. I think they might have the 2nd best offense outside of New England. I’m slightly concerned about the switch to the 3-4 defense, but the Jets did it when Mangini took over and they were fairly effective. The division is pretty tough, but their schedule looks good otherwise.
3. New Orleans: They open vs the Lions with a 13 point line. They should be able to score enough to compensate for a very ordinary defense. The NFC west is always a crap shoot and I’d rather have my money on Drew Brees then the other 3 QB’s.
4. Seattle: I think we’ll see them open up the offense a little more this year as they move away from the old fashioned west coast offense to more spread formations. I think Hasselbeck will thrive with a new head coach.
5. Cowboys: This pick is contingent on Tony Romo playing 16 games. If I were Jerry Jones, I’d sign Jeff Garcia for an insurance policy because the offense has really sputtered when he’s been injured. Garcia has a similar style and would probably keep them rolling into the playoffs if Romo got hurt.
6. Vikes: I don’t like the Favre signing very much if only for the fact the guy is old and pretty out of shape. I’d honestly like to have Garcia instead of Favre. Obviously he doesn’t have the same track record, but the guy isn’t falling apart at the seams like Favre. The vikes D and running game is good enough to carry them most of the way, but I don’t think they’ll be as good as most of the Purple People think.
AFC
1. San Diego: While I think their talent is on par with New England and they have a much weaker coaching staff, I also think they have a much easier schedule and are bound to be lucky than they were last year. The whole Tila Tequila thing has got to have the Bolts fans worried, but I think the team named for a “whale’s vagina” will be able to bounce back. They are favored by 9 this weekend and I like them to cover.
2. New England: Tom Brady is back, along with Randy Moss and Wes Welker. With those three alone, they should put up 35 points a game. I’m a little worried about their defense because they have lost a lot of key players over the last few years. But I wouldn’t doubt it too much since Bellichik is a defense guru and knows that depth is as important a studs especially on D.
3. Pittsburgh: This team always finds a way to win. They have good depth and are well coached.
4. Colts: No Harrison this year, but I don’t think WR will be an issue for them this season. If their O line can give Peyton time and if they can slow people down just a little on D, then they’ll be a playoff team easy. If Peyton gets beat up because of lousy pass protection, then they could be in trouble. I think the Texans are their biggest threat this year. The Jags and Titans will dip off.
5. Houston: I like their schedule better than the Ravens and Dolphins although I think the other two are better on paper. If they can keep their QB standing, they’ll be in the playoffs.
6. Ravens: I worry about their offense scoring on a consistent basis, but their D is probably good enough to carry them into the playoffs.
NFC
1. GInts: I really like this team this year. They are still very experienced after winning the Super Bowl 2 seasons ago. I think they’ll be able to move the ball consistently on offense but I’m a little concerned about their execution in the red zone. I’ve read in a couple of places that teams who struggle in the red zone one year but are good otherwise usually rebound. Others say losing Plaxico was the reason for the struggles. We’ll see.
2. GB: Love the Packers this year. I think they might have the 2nd best offense outside of New England. I’m slightly concerned about the switch to the 3-4 defense, but the Jets did it when Mangini took over and they were fairly effective. The division is pretty tough, but their schedule looks good otherwise.
3. New Orleans: They open vs the Lions with a 13 point line. They should be able to score enough to compensate for a very ordinary defense. The NFC west is always a crap shoot and I’d rather have my money on Drew Brees then the other 3 QB’s.
4. Seattle: I think we’ll see them open up the offense a little more this year as they move away from the old fashioned west coast offense to more spread formations. I think Hasselbeck will thrive with a new head coach.
5. Cowboys: This pick is contingent on Tony Romo playing 16 games. If I were Jerry Jones, I’d sign Jeff Garcia for an insurance policy because the offense has really sputtered when he’s been injured. Garcia has a similar style and would probably keep them rolling into the playoffs if Romo got hurt.
6. Vikes: I don’t like the Favre signing very much if only for the fact the guy is old and pretty out of shape. I’d honestly like to have Garcia instead of Favre. Obviously he doesn’t have the same track record, but the guy isn’t falling apart at the seams like Favre. The vikes D and running game is good enough to carry them most of the way, but I don’t think they’ll be as good as most of the Purple People think.
Monday, September 7, 2009
Week 1 Recap
It was great to see college football back on the TV. Watching college football in my time zone takes a little bit more pre-planning than back in the states. The first kickoff for me doesn't start until 6 pm. That means the last kickoff of the night usually happens around 3 or 4 am. Of course, the best games are generally the later kickoffs. My ritual is to watch the first games and by the time they are wrapping up, Alicia is in bed. Generally, the 2nd game is usually a Pac-10 game and is of less importance. About half time of the second set of games is when I go down for a nap. If for some reason, those games are really appealing, then I just pop a red bull and hope the wife lets me sleep in.
This weekend started off with the Gophers/Orange(men) being shown at 6 pm. Alicia was going to a movie with a friend, so Lucy was 'extra' tired and went to bed a little early so daddy could concentrate. It was an excruciating game to watch. The Gophers have switched their offense to the spread option of the last 2 seasons to a more pro style offense that closely resembles what they were doing 3 seasons ago when they were consistently one of the top ten teams in the FBS in rushing every year. Well let me re-phrase that, the formations looked similar, the results where not even close. The run game was pretty anemic, but was some how out done by the lousy QB play and overall play calling. This was Adam Weber's 26th start. That is a ton of starts for a college QB. But he's been starting since he was redshirt freshman. The good thing about Weber has always been his completion percentage. He's always been around 60%. Against the Orange(men) he was struggling mightily around 30%.
And the most perplexing part of the game was the lack of balls thrown towards Adam Decker. He is clearly our best player on offense, which is a little disheartening considering he is a tall slow white guy playing wide out. But he makes plays and has the ability to catch any ball in traffic. He got the ball late in the game, but doesn't excuse the fact he was ignored for 3 quarters.
The good news is, the Gophers walked away with a win. They open their new stadium next week versus the Falcons of the Air Force Academy. I couldn't think of a worse choice for a the first home game, but what do I know? The Academy isn't necessarily a powerhouse, but their spread option causes good defenses problems. Plus, they aren't really a big draw, so a lose looks especially bad. Their D is worse than the gophers, so the game might total in the hundreds.
In other news around the FBS, BYU knocked off the #3 team in the land Oklahoma. I hope Sam Bradford is able to recover from his injury in time for the NFL combine. If he falls out of the top ten, then you'll be less likely to see guys stick around for one more year of college football. He was draft eligible last year, but wanted to stick around for a shot at a national championship. Obviously, that is out the window, but hopefully his future isn't.
The team I was most impressed with is Alabama. They completely man handled Virginia Tech. I was too much of a ninny to bet it, but I did take them in both of my pools. Their O line looked very seasoned considering all of the new starters. And their linebacker corp is just unfair. Hightower and McLain sound like a crappy action movie, but they are 2 Bama LB's who are 6'4" 250 and move like race cars. I know I picked Ole Miss to win the SEC west, but I'm now leaning more towards Bama.
It's hard to quantify who looks worse, the ACC or the Big Ten, but it doesn't look like either will be competing for a National Championship this season. The best team in the ACC got clobbered by Bama. Illinois, a team picked by many to be a dark horse B10 title team, got thumped by a rebuilding Mizzou. PSU and Michigan won easily but they second teams were pretty ineffective in the second half's which is a clear sign that they aren't a very deep team. Add that with OSU inability to close out a severly out classed Navy team, and there is no reason to consider these two conferences in the National Championship discussion.
Two more games left on the docket tonight. The Big East opens their season with Cincinnati, last years champ headed to Rutgers. Rutgers is giving 4.5 in this one. Rutgers loses some talent this year, but they have a the best O line/D Line combo in the big east. Brian Kelly has been a miracle worker at Cinci and won the conf title last year even after using every QB on his roster. I'm giving the points in this game and feel pretty confident about it. It's worth 2 units.
FSU plays host to Miami. I think both of these squads are loaded with talent and this game could probably go either way. I look for a close game that is dominated by defense. I'll take the points and hope that this one comes down to a field goal. Miami +6.5.
Thursday, September 3, 2009
Handicapping Challenge
A couple of buddie sand I, have been doing a handicapping challenge for that last 4 years. Basically, we pick 5 games against the spread every week, but we must pick the ESPN College Gameday game, Sunday night and Monday night football game. We started doing it the year after Tim thought he could pick games a 60% clip. Believe it or not, he wasn't even close. Easiest bet I've ever won.
Were doing it this year so I'll post my picks here as well as email them to others in the challenge.
BSU -3 vs Oregon. BSU is great against the spread at home. Unless there is some signifcant change, they are a must bet at home. I know they beat the Ducks last year and they'll be looking for revenge, but I still like BSU in this game.
Bama -6.5 vs VT. They are setting an interesting precedence. I like the early season game at an alternate location. I could see them doing this all over the east coast. VT lost there second best offense player in the offseason and that is going to hurt going up against bama's D who returns 9 starters and held teams to 75 yards rushing per game last year. I think this one will be close, so the line has me staying away in real life, but here, I have to go with Bama. Tyrod Taylor has the ability change this game, I just don't have faith he can do it. If your going to watch the game, keep an eye out for Rashard Carmichael. He's my boy.
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
ACC/Big East Preview
Today and today only, you get two blogs for the price of one. Or, I'm just to lazy to break these two conferences up. These two are probably the most competitive conferences which unfortunately for them also means that they don't have a legit national championship caliber team. While Va Tech is probably the most talented of the bunch, FSU, Rutgers, WVU, Pittsburgh, Clemson, Miami and GT are all in the running to win their respective conference championships.
ACC Atlantic Division
Team | Predicted Record | Notes |
FSU | 9-3 | Going out on a limb on this one. The Sep 7th game vs Miami will let us know who the cream of the ACC is right away. They have a pretty tough non-conf slate for a big time school, with BYU, USF and Florida on the docket. Aside from Fla, I see them losing @ NC and @ Clemson. Too much talent and coaching for this team not to take the next step. |
Clemson | 8-4 | They have 4 tough road games vs GT, Miami, NC State and SC. I think they'd be lucky to win one of those. Plus they have home games vs FSU and Wake. In no way are those gimme's. Highly touted Willy Korn takes over the starting QB spot. I have some significant concerns over their offense. Their D should be near the top of the FBS. |
NC State | 7-5 | I'm a big Tom O'Brien fan. I think he builds programs the right way. I think they take another step this year and finish with a winning record. |
Wake | 7-5 | I met Jim Grobe a few months ago. I had a good talk with him. I asked him if he thought the fact that nearly everyone recruits in Florida negatively affects FSU and Miami thus leading to the lousy teams they've had in the recent past. He thought it had more to do with QB play. I found that interesting considering that Chris Weinke and Gino Torretta where Heisman winners and turned out to be fairly lousy QB's in the NFL. Great coach though. But they could be in for a scare this weekend. Baylor is for real. |
BC | 5-7 | There is no way you can change coaches like underwear and expect to maintain the same level of success year in and year out. It just doesn't work that way in college football. They lost their projected starting QB in the offseason, so I really think they'll struggle on offense. |
MD | 5-7 | Did you see that Ralph Friedgen lost 100 pounds? Not much of the way of returning starters, so I think they'll struggle this year. But the Fridge has had success when people doubt him especially with good QB play. |
ACC Coastal Division
Team | Predicted Record | Notes |
Va Tech | 10-2 | They have a legit shot to upset Alabama this weekend, but they'd have a better shot if Darren Evans wasn't out for the year. Frank Beamer is one of the best in the business, so he'll get someone to step up. On a side note, I have an friend, whose son plays for this team. We watched his sons high school football team win the MD state championship. Great game. I see them losing to Bama and @GT. Otherwise, their D, special teams and Tyrod Taylor are still good enough to carry them through the ACC. |
GT | 9-3 | Paul Johnson is turning out to be a pretty good football coach. Surprised? I'm not sure why, the guy turned basically a FCS team into a team that beat Notre Dame for the first time since WWII. So to see him win in the ACC isn't surprising. One more year in his system plus two recruiting classes with his type of guys should lead to even more success. I see L's vs Miami, FSU and the Bulldogs. |
Miami | 8-4 | I think the Hurricanes will struggle early with the tough part of their schedule, but I can see them getting hot towards the end of the season. L's to FSU, OU, Va Tech and Wake . |
NC | 6-6 | I think I might be off on this team, but usually teams that improve 3+ games fall back a little the next year. They are getting more and more talented every year under Butch Davis, but I see L's vs GT, FSU, VT, Miami, BC and NC State. |
UVA | 4-8 | I'm hoping they finish 4-8 and lose to VT just so Al Groh finally gets fired. |
Duke | 3-9 | This is probably a better team than Cutcliffe had last year, but they have a tougher schedule. 15 years since their last bowl game. Wow. |
Odds to Win Conf Championship ACC
Team | Odds to Win |
Va Tech | +200 |
FSU | +230 |
Clemson | +350 |
Miami | +450 |
NC | +540 |
GT | +580 |
Outside of Va Tech and FSU, I think any of these bets are pretty quality. The ACC is definitely wide open, so getting better than 3-1 for one of the top 5 or 6 teams seems like a good bet to me. My favorites are GT and Miami.
Team | Wins | Odds Over | Odds Under |
Va Tech | 9.5 | +150 | -190 |
FSU | 8 | +190 | -250 |
Clemson | 8.5 | +105 | -135 |
Miami | 8 | +180 | -240 |
NC | 8.5 | +160 | -210 |
GT | 8.5 | -105 | -125 |
Maryland | 6 | +170 | -220 |
NC State | 8 | +200 | -260 |
Boy, I expected to see some good one's here, but this is probably the worst lines I've seen.
Big East
Team | Predicted Record | Notes |
Rutgers | 10-2 | Their schedule works out better than the other Big East competitors. I don't think they are drastically better than USF, Pitt or WVU, but playing your tough games at home sure does help. |
Pitt | 8-4 | Losing a player like Leshon McCoy is a big shot to the system. They've never really lived up to they hype of the talent they've recruited, but I still think they'll have a solid year. L's to NC State, Rutgers, ND and WVU. |
USF | 8-4 | A talented team that seems to recruit freakish athletes at the DE position like it's no big deal. Grothe is back for what feels like his 6th season, so this team has a chance in every game they play in. He also makes some dumb mistakes, so the other team is always in it as well. L's vs FSU, Pitt, Rutgers and Miami. |
WVU | 8-4 | No Pat White, but they do have his brother. Maybe they should have talked to Va Tech before they went ahead and recruited him and asked them how Marcus Vick turned out. I think we'll see a steady decline under Bill Stewart. There is usually a reason why a good coaches, takes all the assistants with him except for 1 or 2. Those are the lousy one's. L's vs Auburn, USF, Cinci and Rutgers. |
Cinci | 6-6 | They've won 21 games over the last 2 seasons. They have to be the most under the radar team that has won 21 games over the last 2 years. How is Brian Kelly still coaching here, when Tennessee hired a head coach with zero experience? If he can somehow do it again, the choice job is really up to him. L's vs Rutgers, Oregon St., USF, WVU, Illinois, Pitt. |
UCONN | 4-8 | I'd love to see them beat Notre Dame, but I don't think they can do it this year. |
Louisville | 3-9 | Kragthorpe won't even make it till home coming. He walked into a terrible situation following Petrino and his shenanigans. How was he to know that Petrino cared little about police reports or report cards? He'll get another shot. |
Syracuse | 2-10 | The Gophers open at the Orange. I guess their head coach thinks this is the best job in the FBS, so they have that going for them. This is the same guy who lead the NO Saints offense to the top of the NFL, but wasn't able to get into the playoffs. Another year of futility awaits. |
Odds to Win Conf Championship Big East
Team | Odds to Win |
Pitt | +230 |
WVU | +230 |
USF | +230 |
Rutgers | +450 |
Cinci | +700 |
Uconn | +700 |
Vegas is literally just guessing here. I obviously like Rutgers at 4.5 to one. Not bad odds on the other top 3 teams.
Team | Wins | Odds Over | Odds Under |
Pitt | 7.5 | -165 | +130 |
WVU | 8.5 | Even | -130 |
USF | 8 | -110 | -120 |
Rutgers | 8 | -300 | +220 |
Uconn | 8.5 | +185 | -245 |
Even less to get excited about here. Tell me, doesn't it seem weird that Rutgers is essentially picked 4th by Vegas to win the conference, but the odds for them to win 8 games is at -300?
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