I'm making my way through conference previews faster than Felix is flying home from Afghanistan. I'll quickly cover USC and the rest of the Pac-10. The first two conferences had two teams that really set themselves apart from the rest of the conference. For the Pac 10, there is really just 1 team with a few also ran's and 2 teams that are barely FBS qualified in Washington and Washington state. Put it this way, Phil Steele ranks every aspect of USC either first or second in the Pac 10 excluding special teams. No one else is even close.
Team | Predicted Record | Notes |
USC | 11-1 | Worst USC team in the last 3 years on paper. They only have 3 returning starters on D, one of the top 2 defenders in the FBS, but still, experience counts. On top of that, they may put a freshman in the starting QB spot. How much money do you want to be on a freshman going into the Horshoe? I'll pass. They'll lose to OSU, but run the table in the Pac-10. Will that be enough for a NC game? |
Cal | 10-2 | Good team, but not world beaters. They have a strong O line and a Jahvid Best is a stud. I just don't like them to win on the road at Oregon then follow that up with a home win vs USC. |
OSU | 9-3 | Not my favorite team, but they have a strong home field advantage and their home games are lined up to be winners. They only bring back 3 starters on D, but this team has won 9+ the last 3 years and I'm not willing to buck the trend here. I see them losing @USC, @Cal and @OU. |
Oregon | 8-4 | Very similar to the OSU team in that they may not be the 4th most talented team in the Pac 10, but their home field advantage swings a great deal in their favor. I see them losing the first game of the season at Boise State, but I think they'll find some traction during the rest of Sept. Besides BSU, I see loses @UCLA, vs USC and @ Arizona. I'm a little worried about the new head coach, but I think he'll get this offense to 45+ points a game. |
UCLA | 6-6 | Best team they've had in awhile. They bring back 16 returning starters, but they are still planning on starting a red shirt frosh QB. Phil Steele has this team a lot higher, but I don't think they'll make the jump this season. I pick them losing @ Tenn, Vs OU, vs Cal, @Arizona, @OSU and @USC. |
Arizona | 6-6 | Mike Stoops has been given every opportunity to turn this team around. I'm not sure he's the guy to do it honestly. They lose their Senior QB and will be starting a soph who's played in 6 games. Road games at Iowa, OSU, Cal, ASU and USC plus a home game vs UCLA will probably bite them. I wouldn't be shocked if they got to 9 wins, but they'd really need to come together behind the young QB. |
Stanford | 5-7 | They keep getting better, but I wonder where they'll plateau? It's Stanford, so unless they out gimmick people, they are never really going to have the talent to win the conference. Harbaugh has done a really good job bringing them out of the duldrums, but I'm not sure they sneak into a bowl this season. 2 tough non conf games @ Wake Forest and vs Notre Dame are really what's keeping them out of a bowl. They should learn from Wisconsin or Kansas State. |
ASU | 5-7 | Year number 3 of the Dennis Erickson experiment. He's a superb college coach but last year the team slipped drastically from his first season where they won 10 games. Will this be the first back to back losing season for Erickson? I think so. L's @ Georgia, vs OSU, @ Stanford, vs Cal, vs USC, @ OU and @ UCLA. They will probably be favorites in 2 of those, but I'm just not sold on these guys. |
Was/WSU | 2-10 | Okay, I really don't want to waste my time with these schools. Talent wise, they just aren't there yet. The best thing about these two schools I Jake Locker. Too bad he's pretty much running for his life back there. Funny story about WSU. I was in a dunk tank the other day for a work picnic. A young kid about 12 years old or so came up to try and dunk me. But he was wearing a WSU t-shirt. Well, I let him have it. I ridiculed his football team to no end, to the point I don't think he could thrown the ball and hit a car. It really got to him. Someone said I might have been too hard on him, but if he's got enough balls to wear a WSU t-shirt, he needs to be ready to hear some crap about it. |
Possible Bets
Odds to win Conf Championship
Team | Odds to Win |
USC | -320 |
Cal | +280 |
Oregon | +280 |
OSU | +700 |
UCLA Bruins | +850 |
At almost 3-1 I wouldn't mind taking a flyer on Cal. I also like the 7-1 odds on Cal. Both of them look like quality bets until you think about how much better USC is than these two.
Team | Wins | Odds Over | Odds Under |
USC | 10.5 | +110 | -140 |
Cal | 9 | -155 | +125 |
OSU | 7.5 | -120 | -110 |
OU | 8 | +155 | -205 |
UCLA | 6 | -210 | +160 |
Arizona | 6.5 | -140 | +110 |
ASU | 6.5 | -115 | -115 |
The USC bet is tempting. Basically, the line is saying, that USC will be upset once this year since they figure to be favorites in every game except the Ohio State game (and they could be favorites there if OSU starts out slow). Essentially, would make a wager that says USC will win every game besides the OSU game straight up? I think I would. Not much else peaked my interest.
Two bets are coming out of the Pac-10. First, USC to win 10.5 or more at +110 for $20. Second bet is Cal to win the conf at +280 for $10. A perfect world would have USC beat OSU, then lose to Cal and both win out the rest of the conf games. Probably won't happen, but that's why they call it 'gamblin'.
No comments:
Post a Comment