Pac 10 Preview

I'm making my way through conference previews faster than Felix is flying home from Afghanistan. I'll quickly cover USC and the rest of the Pac-10. The first two conferences had two teams that really set themselves apart from the rest of the conference. For the Pac 10, there is really just 1 team with a few also ran's and 2 teams that are barely FBS qualified in Washington and Washington state. Put it this way, Phil Steele ranks every aspect of USC either first or second in the Pac 10 excluding special teams. No one else is even close.

Team	Predicted Record	Notes
USC	11-1	Worst USC team in the last 3 years on paper. They only have 3 returning starters on D, one of the top 2 defenders in the FBS, but still, experience counts. On top of that, they may put a freshman in the starting QB spot. How much money do you want to be on a freshman going into the Horshoe? I'll pass. They'll lose to OSU, but run the table in the Pac-10. Will that be enough for a NC game?
Cal	10-2	Good team, but not world beaters. They have a strong O line and a Jahvid Best is a stud. I just don't like them to win on the road at Oregon then follow that up with a home win vs USC.
OSU	9-3	Not my favorite team, but they have a strong home field advantage and their home games are lined up to be winners. They only bring back 3 starters on D, but this team has won 9+ the last 3 years and I'm not willing to buck the trend here. I see them losing @USC, @Cal and @OU.
Oregon	8-4	Very similar to the OSU team in that they may not be the 4th most talented team in the Pac 10, but their home field advantage swings a great deal in their favor. I see them losing the first game of the season at Boise State, but I think they'll find some traction during the rest of Sept. Besides BSU, I see loses @UCLA, vs USC and @ Arizona. I'm a little worried about the new head coach, but I think he'll get this offense to 45+ points a game.
UCLA	6-6	Best team they've had in awhile. They bring back 16 returning starters, but they are still planning on starting a red shirt frosh QB. Phil Steele has this team a lot higher, but I don't think they'll make the jump this season. I pick them losing @ Tenn, Vs OU, vs Cal, @Arizona, @OSU and @USC.
Arizona	6-6	Mike Stoops has been given every opportunity to turn this team around. I'm not sure he's the guy to do it honestly. They lose their Senior QB and will be starting a soph who's played in 6 games. Road games at Iowa, OSU, Cal, ASU and USC plus a home game vs UCLA will probably bite them. I wouldn't be shocked if they got to 9 wins, but they'd really need to come together behind the young QB.
Stanford	5-7	They keep getting better, but I wonder where they'll plateau? It's Stanford, so unless they out gimmick people, they are never really going to have the talent to win the conference. Harbaugh has done a really good job bringing them out of the duldrums, but I'm not sure they sneak into a bowl this season. 2 tough non conf games @ Wake Forest and vs Notre Dame are really what's keeping them out of a bowl. They should learn from Wisconsin or Kansas State.
ASU	5-7	Year number 3 of the Dennis Erickson experiment. He's a superb college coach but last year the team slipped drastically from his first season where they won 10 games. Will this be the first back to back losing season for Erickson? I think so. L's @ Georgia, vs OSU, @ Stanford, vs Cal, vs USC, @ OU and @ UCLA. They will probably be favorites in 2 of those, but I'm just not sold on these guys.
Was/WSU	2-10	Okay, I really don't want to waste my time with these schools. Talent wise, they just aren't there yet. The best thing about these two schools I Jake Locker. Too bad he's pretty much running for his life back there. Funny story about WSU. I was in a dunk tank the other day for a work picnic. A young kid about 12 years old or so came up to try and dunk me. But he was wearing a WSU t-shirt. Well, I let him have it. I ridiculed his football team to no end, to the point I don't think he could thrown the ball and hit a car. It really got to him. Someone said I might have been too hard on him, but if he's got enough balls to wear a WSU t-shirt, he needs to be ready to hear some crap about it.

 

Possible Bets

Odds to win Conf Championship

Team	Odds to Win
USC	-320
Cal	+280
Oregon	+280
OSU	+700
UCLA Bruins	+850

 

At almost 3-1 I wouldn't mind taking a flyer on Cal. I also like the 7-1 odds on Cal. Both of them look like quality bets until you think about how much better USC is than these two.

Team	Wins	Odds Over	Odds Under
USC	10.5	+110	-140
Cal	9	-155	+125
OSU	7.5	-120	-110
OU	8	+155	-205
UCLA	6	-210	+160
Arizona	6.5	-140	+110
ASU	6.5	-115	-115

 

The USC bet is tempting. Basically, the line is saying, that USC will be upset once this year since they figure to be favorites in every game except the Ohio State game (and they could be favorites there if OSU starts out slow). Essentially, would make a wager that says USC will win every game besides the OSU game straight up? I think I would. Not much else peaked my interest.

 

Two bets are coming out of the Pac-10. First, USC to win 10.5 or more at +110 for $20. Second bet is Cal to win the conf at +280 for $10. A perfect world would have USC beat OSU, then lose to Cal and both win out the rest of the conf games. Probably won't happen, but that's why they call it 'gamblin'.

 

 

Big 12 Preview

I've gotten such a big response from my Big 10 blog, I've decided to follow it up with a Big 12 preview. Yeah, at this point, I really don't care if you read it or not, I just like to lay down my predictions just in case they actually come true. Then I can start my own gambling advice website and make millions. Or I can fail mightily, but no one's watching, so no big deal.

Big 12 is still loaded this year, but not like last year. Texas Tech and Mizzou are probably going to be on the down swing a little after having really good seasons the last 2 years. And from where I sit, this league still boils down to the top 2 teams; Texas and Oklahoma. OSU is good, but I don't think they are good enough to get past OU and Texas.

Big 12 North

Team	Predicted Record	Notes
Texas	12-0	Not only do they have a stud QB and a solid D, but there O line is the cream of the B12.
OU	11-1	I predicted Sam Bradford would win a Heisman when he was a freshman. I'm never big on saying guys will be great in the NFL, but if there has ever been a sure bet on a QB making at the next level, he's the guy. If the O-line comes together, they could beat Texas and Florida. But that will probably be a weakness for OU.
OSU	9-3	They are facing Georgia week 1 at home and are 6 point favorites. I like them to win and cover, but I don't like them vs Texas, OU and wait for it…@Baylor. Great offense but is everything else there?
Baylor	7-5	Great to see this program on the rebound. Shows what a team can do if it gets one good player. Sort of like what Ray Rice did for Rutgers, Robert Griffin is doing for Baylor. He was my favorite guy on NCAA 08 and I think they'll shock some people this year.
Texas Tech	6-6	Okay, I get it, whomever their QB is will throw for 4,500 yards. I'm not sure that will win games @ Texas, @ Houston, @ Nebraska and @ Ok State nor home verse OU.
TAMU	5-7	They'll be a little better than last season, but they are still going through a pretty big transition. They've been able to recruit fairly well, but is Mike Sherman a real college coach? We'll see…

 

 

 

Big 12 South

Team	Predicted Record	Notes
Nebraska	8-4	Pretty big drop off between the best team in the North and best team in the south. Nebraska hasn't been able to recruit at a very high level, but Polini is a solid coach who'll have his guys ready to play. OL/DL will be strong enough to carry them. If skill positions step up, they could be in for a good season. I see them losing to @VaTech, @Mizzou, @Baylor and vs OU.
CU	7-5	Will 7 wins be enough? Dan Hawkins hasn't been as successful as was expected hn he was brought over from Boise State to turn the Buffs around. He's calling for 10 wins. With games at WVU, Texas and OSU plus a home game against Nebraska. 8 wins would be a success. 10 would be a miracle.
KSU	6-6	Please welcome back the all time master in scheduling 4 cupcakes, win 2 conf games and getting a bowl invitation, Bill Synder! Not a very good team, but they have a weak enough schedule to get 6 wins.
KU	5-7	I think this is a much better team than KSU, but they have a really tough schedule. I'm not ready to say this yet, but I think they could lose at home to Duke. And I definetly think that Southern Miss will beat them. From Oct 17 to Nov 21st, they have a chance to make or break their year. @CU, vs OU, @ Tech, @ KSU, vs Neb, and @ Texas. I just don't think they are good enough to handle a string of games like that.
Mizzou	3-9	The really lost the heart and soul of their team in Chase Daniel. QB play isn't everything, but in their offense it nearly is. 13 attempts between all the QB's on the roster.
Iowa State	3-9	Moving up the list of worst head coaching jobs in the BCS. Tough place to recruit with no history to fall back on. I don't think they'll win a game past October.

Possible Wagers

Odds to win Conf Championship

Team	Odds to Win
OU	+140
Texas	+140
OSU	+700
Nebraska	+230
KU	+230

 

Almost worth taking a flyer on OSU. They have a good team and it's not too hard to imagine the B12 shaping up like last season, where the winner of Texas/OU loses to another team. A small wager with those odds isn't a bad lottery ticket.

 

Team	Wins	Odds Over	Odds Under
Texas	10	-155	+125
OU	10	-125	-155
OSU	9	+105	-135
Tech	8	-155	-180
Nebraska	8.5	+115	-145
Mizzou	7.5	+160	-210

 

10 wins for OU or Texas is nearly a free bet. Between the 2 of them, they've hit the 10 win point all but once since 2001. OU has hit the 11 win mark the last 3 years and 8 of the last 8 years. But the odds aren't good enough to draw me in.

I really like Tech at for under 8. -180 is not great odds, but I really don't think they'll win 6 games, let alone 8.

So "put it on the board!" Second bet of the season is Texas Tech to win less than 8 games at -180 for ten bones.

Big Ten Preview

It's the most wonderful time of the year! College football is just over a week away. The ring in the new season, I'm going to run down each conference and give a few quick predictions on how the season will pan out, while also hopefully identifying a couple of futures that are worth investing in. The first conference I'll look into is the Big Ten. I won't spend the next paragraph discussing why the Big Ten is so down and how they are so outclassed with the speed of the SEC. That issue has been beat to death and probably doesn't mean anything in terms of success this season for the Big Ten.

Here's how I think the Big Ten will finish up:

 

Team	Record	Notes
PSU	11-1	I see them losing at Illini. All other tough games are at home. I worry a little about their O line, but the core of skill players is very strong.
OSU	11-1	I think they'll beat USC, but lose at PSU. I don't think we know how good Pryor is going to be yet, but I do think we'll find out quickly.
Wisc	9-3	Masters of the cupcake schedule. Talent wise, I think they're probably the 6th best team in the conf. All I know is, the AXE is going to look good in the new stadium.
Illinois	8-4	The QB play is still too shaky to be trusted on the road. I see L's at OSU, MN, PSU, and Cinci. They have the best offensive player in the Conf in Benn, but Juice just doesn't leave me with a good feeling.
Iowa	8-4	They closed the season strong last year, but lost their best player. L's at MSU, Wisc and OSU. Not impossible for them to be unbeaten up until Nov 14. They are always strong along the lines and that tends to lead to good seasons.
MSU	7-5	Tough road schedule. L's at Notre Dame, Wisc, Illini, Min and PSU. If they beat ND in week three, they could roll the momentum past Wisc. Lose that game, and the wheels could come off.
Minny	7-5	Best Gopher squad in awhile; too bad the schedule is the strongest since Lou Holtz was in town. I'm worried sick about AF opening TCF Bank stadium. I see L's vs Cal, @NW, @PSU, @OSU and @Iowa. I worried about what the new offense will do to our recruiting efforts. It's been difficult to get good receivers, and I don't think a 'balanced' offense will change that too much.
Northwestern	7-5	This team won 9 games last year. 4 cupcakes and 3 wins vs Indiana, Purdue and Minny.
Michigan	6-6	Bowl Game for the Wolverines as long as the beat ND at home. Still young and learning a new scheme, but RichRod has his guys in even if they are young. Year 2 is when his teams improve.
Purdue	3-9	They used to be good.
Indiana	3-9	They've always sucked.

 

Possible Wagers

Not much money to be made betting on PSU or OSU to win the conf. They are +140 and +160 respectively. I guess if you had a hunch, you could put some money on Illinois at +540 or Iowa at +460. I'm going to stay away.

In terms of wins per team, not much to get worked up about. Here is the break down

Team	Wins	Odds Over	Odds Under
PSU	9	-220	+170
OSU	9.5	-130	Even
Iowa	8	-130	Even
Illinois	7.5	-145	+115
Mich	6	-195	+155
MSU	8	+135	-175
Wisc	8	-115	-115

 

I'm not sure who thinks PSU or OSU loses more than 2 games this year, but I don't think those odds are good enough to bet. My favorite bet, and the only one I'll place in this conference is Michigan under 8 wins. I think that is where they'll end up, but there is a good chance they lose to ND, MSU, Iowa, PSU, Illinois, Wisc and OSU. The other 5 are E/W Michigan, Delaware St., Indiana and Purdue. Not exactly world beaters, so I feel like I'm betting on the outcome of 2 games (MSU and ND). If MSU was at the big house, I'd go the other way, but it's on the road. ND has the talent to wipe the field with Michigan and MSU will have the edge at home.

 

First bet of the year is Michigan to win 6 at +155 for $10.

UFC 101

It's my favorite weekend of the month, UFC fight weekend. That's the best thing about the UFC, you are always guaranteed 1 solid night of fights every month, and sometimes you get luck and get two. Boxing always has a few headliners a year, but then there is a bunch of crappy undercards and 'who's that guy?' fights that just makes it less fun to follow. After last month's amazing UFC 100, I'm looking forward to UFC 101 on Sunday morning (my time). My boy Forrest Griffin is taking on one of the top three fighters in MMA, Anderson "Spider" Silva. But we also have a great lightweight fight in BJ Penn vs Kenny Florian. But just to make if fun, I'm going to pick a few fights, lay down a little cash, and hope to get lucky. Here are my thoughts going into UFC 101.

 

Forrest Griffin +290 vs Silva

I'm not sure how Griffin can win this fight, but the odds are just too good not to take him. Silva is amazing in the ring and I think he'll come out looking for blood after his last fight was one of the worst fights I've ever seen. Griffin is a seriously tough SOB. I love his personality and I don't think he's intimidated in the least bit. He's got enough of a size advantage that taking the odds seems like a good bet. Anything below +200 and I'd take Silva. But, as it stands now, I'm putting 1 unit on Griffin.

BJ Penn -250 vs Kenny Florian

BJ Penn is a great fighter at 155. He was completely dominated by GSP in his last fight, but so was everyone else. KenFlo is fun to watch and he'll bring it, but BJ is a tactician and will probably end this one early either by a TKO or submission. I actually feel that KenFlo should be a bigger dog that Griffin. BJ has dominated the lightweight division as much as Silva has the middleweight division, but Silva is moving up to light heavyweight to fight Griffin.

Thales Leites -350 vs Alessio Sakara

This won't be much of a fight and the odds don't leave me to bet anything but 2 units, but if you are into submissions, this should be fun to watch. Leites a super wrestler/BJJ guy and will take this to the mat as soon as possible. As soon as that happens, it will be a short match. If Sakara somehow keeps this standing, then it could go the other way. I just don't think it's possible.

Matt Riddle -180 vs Dan Cramer

My favorite line of the night. Riddle has looked good both times he's stepped into the ring. I think this is stepping stone fight for Riddle. If he's does well here, he'll get some stiff completion in his next fight.

Villefort -215 vs Jesse Lennox

Getting your first fight in the UFC is like being called up from AA to make your first start in the big leagues. Something about fighting in the octagon for the first time seems to get to people. Lennox is an experienced fighter, but this is his first time in the octagon. Good luck young fella, I'm betting heavy against you.

Let's win some money!!!