SEC Preview

I’ve sort of fallen off the wagon recently on updating the blog, but I think I’ll be able to finish all the major conferences by kick off on Thursday. From where I stand, I’ll only have the Big East and ACC left after today. I’ll thinking I might even combine the good teams from those conferences with the BSU, BYU, Utah, TCU, Notre Dame and call it a week. We’ll see how things go tomorrow and Wednesday.

On to the SEC. It’s really hard to argue that this is the best conference in the FBS. If you feel like arguing that point, just look at the caliber of coaches. Nick Saban, Les Miles, Urban Miles, and Da Old Ball Coach are all National Championship winners. Phil Fulmer was let go because he hadn’t won a NC in ten years. Houston Nutt and Mark Richt would probably be huge hirings in any other conferences, but are pretty much common place in the SEC.

So who can beat Florida? After their home lose to Ole Miss last year, they ran the tables like no one else probably ever has. Not only did they win every game by double digits after, they covered. There is really no other way to explain their dominance. I’d compare it the the NFC’s run of Superbowls in the late 80’s. Just the world’s easiest bet. It’s hard not to jump on them early and often and hope they keep up the run.

SEC West

Team	Predicted Record	Notes
Ole Miss	12-0	I’m going out on a limb here, but I really think this team is the perfect mix of talent and coaching. Houston Nutt has walked into a great situation. There is no way he would have ever been able to convince Snead to transfer, but he lucked into it after Orgeron was canned. Orgeron on the other hand, was a lousy coach but an amazing recruiter. Toughest games at home. Good year to hang out at the ‘grove’.
Bama	11-1	Outside of losing at Ole Miss, they should have a great season. They have tough opener on Saturday in ATL vs Va Tech. Get by the Hokies and they should roll until the head to Oxford for a game against the Rebels. They have LSU at home and could easily win the SEC.
LSU	8-4	Very talented team. If they had Ole Miss’s schedule, I’d say they go undefeated. But they have to play @UGA, vs Gators, @ Bama and @ Ole Miss. Knowing Les Miles, they win at least one of those.
Arkansas	7-5	Nice bounce back year for the Razorbacks. A guy in my office is a Razorback fan and he continually reminisces back to the SWC days. I remind him that those days are over and they screwed up by letting Nutt go, no matter who he slept with. The same guy also makes a sound like Golum every time he clears his throat. He’s also one of those guys who makes nicknames for everything. Like when he asks if you want to walk to the post office he says, “do you wanna go postal?” or for ice cream “do you wanna cream?” They use formula for an average team to make a bowl. 4 cupkaes and 3 conf wins. Seweee!!!!
Auburn	6-6	War Eagle sneaks back into a bowl game in honor of Felix’s return from a deployment. I find it interesting that they brought int Gus Malzahn after last years experiment with the spread was a big failure. Malzahns’ offense isn’t even really the spread. It goes beyond that. The things he did at Tulsa were pretty remarkable, producing 569 yards a game. The talent is there on D for them to be scary. They play WVU at home Sep 19, so we’ll learn all we need to that week.
MSU	3-9	Is there enough talent in Mississippi for to bowl caliber teams in the state of Mississippi? I’m not sure. Dan Mullen has a lot of work to do here. Croom wasn’t a world beater when it came to recruiting.

SEC East

Team	Predicted Record	Notes
FLA	12-0	It’s not just that this is a talented team that returns just about everyone, including every 2-deep player on their defense, they also have a very favorable schedule considering they play in the SEC. Their toughest road game is at LSU and while the ‘Cocks play the gators tough, I don’t think that game will challenge them this year. FSU looks good on paper, but they were dismantled by the Gators last year.
UGA	9-2	Last years team was looked upon like a disappointment, but I think this years tea@OSU, nor in the ‘World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party’, but otherwise they’ll be a favorite in every game. Hats off to their AD BTW. They scheduled OSU and GT in the same season. Neither of those are gimme’s.
Tennessee	8-3	I think they can make a bowl game just on their defense. I feel pretty lousy about Phil Fulmer. Losing that job was probably his worst nightmare. This team was a quarter away from being the SEC champion 2 seasons ago and that talent level has not dropped that far.
South Carolina	5-7	I’ve started to doubt the visor’s abilities. He sort of reminds me of Bobby Night at Texas Tech. Yeah, the teams are better than they were before he arrived, but they’re not nearly as good as his old teams. Also, I think his offensive schemes have become sort of passé. He’s pretty conventional when you consider all the intricate offenses out there. They should have followed the golden rule of cupcake scheduling, because games @ NC State and vs Clemson are going to make them miss a bowl game.
Vandy	5-7	Great season for the commodores last year, but can they put two of them together? Probably not. Scheduling GT in the middle of the season will probably turn out to be a bad idea.
Kentucky	4-8	I think they’ll beat MSU at home, otherwise all there other wins will come in the non-conf games. Brooks has done some amazing things with lesser talent, but nothing makes me thing this is the year for them.

Possible Wagers

Odds to win Conf Championship

Team	Odds to Win
FLA	-320
Bama	+280
LSU	+300
Ole Miss	+460
UGA	+580
Auburn	+700

Nothing too exciting here. I’m thinking a good value bet might be LSU and Ole Miss, but I really don’t like my chances with Bama in the west as well.

Team	Wins	Odds Over	Odds Under
FLA	11	-105	-125
Bama	9.5	+135	-175
LSU	8.5	EVEN	-130
OLE MISS	9	-165	+130
UGA	8.5	-110	-120
AUBURN	7.5	+170	-220
Tennessee	7	+150	-190

Even money on Florida going undefeated? Not a bad bet in my book considering they are likely to be 7 point and up favorites in every game they play. Not a ton of upside at even money, but I don’t think it’s a bad bet. I like Bama at +9.5. They can lose twice and you’d still win. If you like them this weekend, where they are a 6.5 point favorite, then this is a good bet. Even if they lose to LSU and Ole Miss, they would win.

I’d be more interested in Ole Miss, if the line was a little bit better. I did read something about Ole Miss the other day from football Outsiders, whom I’d highly recommend, that said that teams with big increases one year, usually fall off the next because the overall talent/coaching hasn’t changed that much. Well, in this case, I disagree, since I think Nutt is 5 times the game day coach as Orgeron and the talent level of Ole Miss never peformed up to its level in the past. But if you have $25 bucks to spend, pick up the Football Almanac http://www.amazon.com/Football-Outsiders-Almanac-2009-Essential/dp/1448648459. It’s basically all I read for the NFL any more. They’ve added a little more to their college coverage, but they can’t touch what Phil Steele produces.