Big 12 Preview

I've gotten such a big response from my Big 10 blog, I've decided to follow it up with a Big 12 preview. Yeah, at this point, I really don't care if you read it or not, I just like to lay down my predictions just in case they actually come true. Then I can start my own gambling advice website and make millions. Or I can fail mightily, but no one's watching, so no big deal.

Big 12 is still loaded this year, but not like last year. Texas Tech and Mizzou are probably going to be on the down swing a little after having really good seasons the last 2 years. And from where I sit, this league still boils down to the top 2 teams; Texas and Oklahoma. OSU is good, but I don't think they are good enough to get past OU and Texas.

Big 12 North

Team	Predicted Record	Notes
Texas	12-0	Not only do they have a stud QB and a solid D, but there O line is the cream of the B12.
OU	11-1	I predicted Sam Bradford would win a Heisman when he was a freshman. I'm never big on saying guys will be great in the NFL, but if there has ever been a sure bet on a QB making at the next level, he's the guy. If the O-line comes together, they could beat Texas and Florida. But that will probably be a weakness for OU.
OSU	9-3	They are facing Georgia week 1 at home and are 6 point favorites. I like them to win and cover, but I don't like them vs Texas, OU and wait for it…@Baylor. Great offense but is everything else there?
Baylor	7-5	Great to see this program on the rebound. Shows what a team can do if it gets one good player. Sort of like what Ray Rice did for Rutgers, Robert Griffin is doing for Baylor. He was my favorite guy on NCAA 08 and I think they'll shock some people this year.
Texas Tech	6-6	Okay, I get it, whomever their QB is will throw for 4,500 yards. I'm not sure that will win games @ Texas, @ Houston, @ Nebraska and @ Ok State nor home verse OU.
TAMU	5-7	They'll be a little better than last season, but they are still going through a pretty big transition. They've been able to recruit fairly well, but is Mike Sherman a real college coach? We'll see…

 

 

 

Big 12 South

Team	Predicted Record	Notes
Nebraska	8-4	Pretty big drop off between the best team in the North and best team in the south. Nebraska hasn't been able to recruit at a very high level, but Polini is a solid coach who'll have his guys ready to play. OL/DL will be strong enough to carry them. If skill positions step up, they could be in for a good season. I see them losing to @VaTech, @Mizzou, @Baylor and vs OU.
CU	7-5	Will 7 wins be enough? Dan Hawkins hasn't been as successful as was expected hn he was brought over from Boise State to turn the Buffs around. He's calling for 10 wins. With games at WVU, Texas and OSU plus a home game against Nebraska. 8 wins would be a success. 10 would be a miracle.
KSU	6-6	Please welcome back the all time master in scheduling 4 cupcakes, win 2 conf games and getting a bowl invitation, Bill Synder! Not a very good team, but they have a weak enough schedule to get 6 wins.
KU	5-7	I think this is a much better team than KSU, but they have a really tough schedule. I'm not ready to say this yet, but I think they could lose at home to Duke. And I definetly think that Southern Miss will beat them. From Oct 17 to Nov 21st, they have a chance to make or break their year. @CU, vs OU, @ Tech, @ KSU, vs Neb, and @ Texas. I just don't think they are good enough to handle a string of games like that.
Mizzou	3-9	The really lost the heart and soul of their team in Chase Daniel. QB play isn't everything, but in their offense it nearly is. 13 attempts between all the QB's on the roster.
Iowa State	3-9	Moving up the list of worst head coaching jobs in the BCS. Tough place to recruit with no history to fall back on. I don't think they'll win a game past October.

Possible Wagers

Odds to win Conf Championship

Team	Odds to Win
OU	+140
Texas	+140
OSU	+700
Nebraska	+230
KU	+230

 

Almost worth taking a flyer on OSU. They have a good team and it's not too hard to imagine the B12 shaping up like last season, where the winner of Texas/OU loses to another team. A small wager with those odds isn't a bad lottery ticket.

 

Team	Wins	Odds Over	Odds Under
Texas	10	-155	+125
OU	10	-125	-155
OSU	9	+105	-135
Tech	8	-155	-180
Nebraska	8.5	+115	-145
Mizzou	7.5	+160	-210

 

10 wins for OU or Texas is nearly a free bet. Between the 2 of them, they've hit the 10 win point all but once since 2001. OU has hit the 11 win mark the last 3 years and 8 of the last 8 years. But the odds aren't good enough to draw me in.

I really like Tech at for under 8. -180 is not great odds, but I really don't think they'll win 6 games, let alone 8.

So "put it on the board!" Second bet of the season is Texas Tech to win less than 8 games at -180 for ten bones.