Big Ten Preview

It's the most wonderful time of the year! College football is just over a week away. The ring in the new season, I'm going to run down each conference and give a few quick predictions on how the season will pan out, while also hopefully identifying a couple of futures that are worth investing in. The first conference I'll look into is the Big Ten. I won't spend the next paragraph discussing why the Big Ten is so down and how they are so outclassed with the speed of the SEC. That issue has been beat to death and probably doesn't mean anything in terms of success this season for the Big Ten.

Here's how I think the Big Ten will finish up:

 

Team	Record	Notes
PSU	11-1	I see them losing at Illini. All other tough games are at home. I worry a little about their O line, but the core of skill players is very strong.
OSU	11-1	I think they'll beat USC, but lose at PSU. I don't think we know how good Pryor is going to be yet, but I do think we'll find out quickly.
Wisc	9-3	Masters of the cupcake schedule. Talent wise, I think they're probably the 6th best team in the conf. All I know is, the AXE is going to look good in the new stadium.
Illinois	8-4	The QB play is still too shaky to be trusted on the road. I see L's at OSU, MN, PSU, and Cinci. They have the best offensive player in the Conf in Benn, but Juice just doesn't leave me with a good feeling.
Iowa	8-4	They closed the season strong last year, but lost their best player. L's at MSU, Wisc and OSU. Not impossible for them to be unbeaten up until Nov 14. They are always strong along the lines and that tends to lead to good seasons.
MSU	7-5	Tough road schedule. L's at Notre Dame, Wisc, Illini, Min and PSU. If they beat ND in week three, they could roll the momentum past Wisc. Lose that game, and the wheels could come off.
Minny	7-5	Best Gopher squad in awhile; too bad the schedule is the strongest since Lou Holtz was in town. I'm worried sick about AF opening TCF Bank stadium. I see L's vs Cal, @NW, @PSU, @OSU and @Iowa. I worried about what the new offense will do to our recruiting efforts. It's been difficult to get good receivers, and I don't think a 'balanced' offense will change that too much.
Northwestern	7-5	This team won 9 games last year. 4 cupcakes and 3 wins vs Indiana, Purdue and Minny.
Michigan	6-6	Bowl Game for the Wolverines as long as the beat ND at home. Still young and learning a new scheme, but RichRod has his guys in even if they are young. Year 2 is when his teams improve.
Purdue	3-9	They used to be good.
Indiana	3-9	They've always sucked.

 

Possible Wagers

Not much money to be made betting on PSU or OSU to win the conf. They are +140 and +160 respectively. I guess if you had a hunch, you could put some money on Illinois at +540 or Iowa at +460. I'm going to stay away.

In terms of wins per team, not much to get worked up about. Here is the break down

Team	Wins	Odds Over	Odds Under
PSU	9	-220	+170
OSU	9.5	-130	Even
Iowa	8	-130	Even
Illinois	7.5	-145	+115
Mich	6	-195	+155
MSU	8	+135	-175
Wisc	8	-115	-115

 

I'm not sure who thinks PSU or OSU loses more than 2 games this year, but I don't think those odds are good enough to bet. My favorite bet, and the only one I'll place in this conference is Michigan under 8 wins. I think that is where they'll end up, but there is a good chance they lose to ND, MSU, Iowa, PSU, Illinois, Wisc and OSU. The other 5 are E/W Michigan, Delaware St., Indiana and Purdue. Not exactly world beaters, so I feel like I'm betting on the outcome of 2 games (MSU and ND). If MSU was at the big house, I'd go the other way, but it's on the road. ND has the talent to wipe the field with Michigan and MSU will have the edge at home.

 

First bet of the year is Michigan to win 6 at +155 for $10.

UFC 101

It's my favorite weekend of the month, UFC fight weekend. That's the best thing about the UFC, you are always guaranteed 1 solid night of fights every month, and sometimes you get luck and get two. Boxing always has a few headliners a year, but then there is a bunch of crappy undercards and 'who's that guy?' fights that just makes it less fun to follow. After last month's amazing UFC 100, I'm looking forward to UFC 101 on Sunday morning (my time). My boy Forrest Griffin is taking on one of the top three fighters in MMA, Anderson "Spider" Silva. But we also have a great lightweight fight in BJ Penn vs Kenny Florian. But just to make if fun, I'm going to pick a few fights, lay down a little cash, and hope to get lucky. Here are my thoughts going into UFC 101.

 

Forrest Griffin +290 vs Silva

I'm not sure how Griffin can win this fight, but the odds are just too good not to take him. Silva is amazing in the ring and I think he'll come out looking for blood after his last fight was one of the worst fights I've ever seen. Griffin is a seriously tough SOB. I love his personality and I don't think he's intimidated in the least bit. He's got enough of a size advantage that taking the odds seems like a good bet. Anything below +200 and I'd take Silva. But, as it stands now, I'm putting 1 unit on Griffin.

BJ Penn -250 vs Kenny Florian

BJ Penn is a great fighter at 155. He was completely dominated by GSP in his last fight, but so was everyone else. KenFlo is fun to watch and he'll bring it, but BJ is a tactician and will probably end this one early either by a TKO or submission. I actually feel that KenFlo should be a bigger dog that Griffin. BJ has dominated the lightweight division as much as Silva has the middleweight division, but Silva is moving up to light heavyweight to fight Griffin.

Thales Leites -350 vs Alessio Sakara

This won't be much of a fight and the odds don't leave me to bet anything but 2 units, but if you are into submissions, this should be fun to watch. Leites a super wrestler/BJJ guy and will take this to the mat as soon as possible. As soon as that happens, it will be a short match. If Sakara somehow keeps this standing, then it could go the other way. I just don't think it's possible.

Matt Riddle -180 vs Dan Cramer

My favorite line of the night. Riddle has looked good both times he's stepped into the ring. I think this is stepping stone fight for Riddle. If he's does well here, he'll get some stiff completion in his next fight.

Villefort -215 vs Jesse Lennox

Getting your first fight in the UFC is like being called up from AA to make your first start in the big leagues. Something about fighting in the octagon for the first time seems to get to people. Lennox is an experienced fighter, but this is his first time in the octagon. Good luck young fella, I'm betting heavy against you.

Let's win some money!!!

Is Entourage Funny Anymore?

I was looking forward to the season premiere of Entourage. I’ve been a big fan of the show since season 1. The new season started a few months beyond where the last one left off. The boys are all riding a hot streak since Vinny closed his big movie, Eric’s pulling in tons of hot tail, Turtle is bagging Meadow Soprano and Drama is still a working actor on a TV show. Everything sounds great right?

Well the big twist is that everyone is leaving Vinny. Yeah that’s right, the ‘Entourage’ is breaking up. So this is where I get lost. You’re telling me that these guys are going to give this all up and pursue their own thing? How about no F-ing way. I get it that Turtle is bagging Meadow Soprano and would like to get in the music business or some such crap, but really? Have you seen Turtle? He’s only got Meadow because of Vinny. And do you think he’ll be able to get a job where he can smoke pot and drink beer all day that doesn’t involve working for Vinny?

I can almost buy Eric’s character. I could almost see that happening in real life. And Drama’s character isn’t that farfetched aside from being able work only a few hours a week on a TV show. From what I know, those guys work their tail off. But whatever it’s tv. Does this mean they are going to rename the show?

o

I could get by all of this if it weren’t for the fact that the show isn’t even remotely funny anymore. The gay bashing antics by Ari have become nothing but tired. OK, we get it, Ari is an asshole and can get away with it because he’s rich and has the keys to Hollywood. But his character isn’t even remotely funny anymore.

I watched the whole first episode and I’m fairly certain I didn’t crack a smile, let alone laugh. The show is a comedy right? I’ve never heard of a 30 minute drama, so this would be new ground. I’ll stick with it till the half way point, but unless I actually start laughing again, it may not be worth the band width.

What I’m Watching on TV

I know that you're dying to know, just what I'm watching on TV. Well, I don't actually watch TV, I download TV shows and watch them on my computer.

HBO premiered their new comedy "Hung" the other night. Not a bad show, but the premise feels awfully familiar. Actually, I'm pretty sure the concept is exactly the same as "Weed" and "Breaking Bad". Parental unit is hard up for cash, and they need to figure out a way to make ends meet. "Weeds" and "Breaking Bad" go with dealing pot and selling crystal meth respectively, while hung takes an entirely different approach and maybe even a less believable approach. He's a teacher/high school basketball coach who has decided to become a male prostitute. This is all fine and dandy if he was going to go out there and start smoking some pole, but that's not going to happen. But I'm sure he's going to get with sad house wives and rich divorcees. The one compelling part of the show is where is shot; Detroit. I'm always enthralled with the depiction of America's decaying cities, so I'll give this show a few more just to see if the expand on that.

I'm half way through season 2 of Mad Men. I'm not sure why it's taken me so long to get into this show, but it is clearly a winner. It's original, compelling and has a really strong class of actors. And oh yeah, Christina Hendricks is on the show. Season 1 was good enough to get me to stick with it, but season 2 is simply great. Honestly, don't be me, go out and watch this show.

I'm not going to call this good television, but "True Blood" is a watchable show with an ton of turns. I've never seen "Lost", but I imagine the show follows the same type of outline; crazy weird shit happening all the time and it's almost hard to follow. I've always dug vampires, and the vampires in this one are pretty cool, so I'll stick around until it jumps the shark.

And that is basically it. I'm dying for season 10 of "The Ultimate Fighter" but otherwise its summer and who needs television.

5 Bands 5 Songs 1 concert

Just got done watching a documentary on Wilco called 'Ashes'. Good music documentary for the most part, but one thing always gets me with them, no matter their level of popularity or lack thereof, there seems to be an assumption that their music will stand the test of time. I just don't feel that way, but who knows. Maybe in 10 years, my kids will be scrambling for my Wilco CDs like we did for the Beatles or Stones.

I've never been lucky enough to see Wilco in concert. It's just never happened. They always play small clubs and I've never been willing to do what it takes to see there shows. Thinking about that and watching the video made me think about what 5 songs I'd like to see performed most in a concert. Few ground rules, the main members of the band have to be alive (no Johnny Cash) and are still performing rock and roll (no Cat Stevens).

For me, there are a few bands/artists that have to be included in any conversation; White Stripes, Tori Amos, Nine Inch Nails and Tool. The 5^th band, and what songs they would perform are the real test here. And it works better if I just use train of thought vs. 1 through 5 since I know which song/band is number 5.

Until you've heard it live and listened to the CD hundreds of times, you just don't get it, but Hurt by Nine Inch Nails is a great closer. It never fails. Hearing Tori perform 'Man and a Gun' for a closer would be pretty amazing, but that's like hoping we'll colonize Mars someday. I just couldn't comprehend that notion. 'Hurt' is number 5.

The second song is reserved for the 5^th band. And it's really close. I could go a hundred different ways here, but I'm really leaning towards Wilco or Soul Coughing. Which is interesting because they really reflect two parts of my life; Soul Coughing started in college, right after they broke up. I just couldn't get enough of them. I remember my first day of college, driving to class, and 'Janine' by Soul Coughing played on the radio. Now if you don't know, that's like see a shooting star getting chased by an UFO. I don't believe in signs, but hearing that song gave me a real feeling of reassurance, if that even makes sense. I found Wilco sometime during college. I can't even pinpoint the time, but I remember buying Yankee Hotel Foxtrot based on a review I read online. I was hooked; mellow tone, strong lyrics and enough rock and roll to call it rock and roll. They both mean so much to me, it's hard to leave one out, but I'm going with Wilco performing all 6 minutes of 'I Am Trying to Break Your Heart' at number 2.

I like my openers to kick me in the teeth and get things rolling. I know this band would never perform this song as an opener, but it's my fantasy damit. For the opener, Tool would kick it with learn to swim or what is better known as 'Aenema'. Yes, I realize that there is no way to follow that song, but if anyone could do it, it's Jeff Tweedy.

Tori would flow onto the stage fourth and pull something deep out of her bag of tricks. Quick side note, but she has made enough music where she could literally do a 10 hour concert. She's become the female Bruce Springsteen. This one is easy since I really like the Boys for Pele album; 'Blood Roses'. I listened to that CD over and over again. I just could never get over her use of the harpsichord. If you don't own, you are really missing out. Just a complex CD that could make you hate men and women all at the same time.

So that leaves Jack and Meg. I was worried that we'd never see these two together again, but Wikipedia says otherwise. My love affair with The White Stripes has been ongoing for some time. I've lost a little respect to for Jack since the James Bond song, but when you have talent oozing through your pores like he does; it's hard not to put out some marketable garbage like that. David Bowie, The Rolling Stones and just about any other band would do the same. Well, maybe not Neil Young but otherwise everyone else. The song choice is tough here, but 'Jolene' still gives me goose bumps to this day.

Pretty good show?