Bill Simmons breaks down Belichick's 4th and 2 and makes his week 11 NFL picks - ESPN

Bill Simmons breaks down Belichick's 4th and 2 and makes his week 11 NFL picks - ESPN

So far, this is the best article I've read that discredits all the stats junkies and their belief that Belichick made the correct decision. I love the Smartfootball and Football Outsider guys, but this was just the wrong decision. Besides the fact the blew the minute before this play happened.

Also, Bill has a good theory about hotel rooms.

Replacing Charlie

I just can’t write enough about Charlie Weiss’ impending doom. It’s just a great story. Here is a guy who took advantage of his alma mater by selling them on the notion that some NFL team was disillusioned enough to offer him a head coaching job after 7 games as the head coach of the Irish. All the sane people in the world realized it was a giant hoax to get an extension, but I guess there aren’t a lot of sane Irish Catholics. So now, a few years has passed and people have come to realize that Charlie isn’t cut out to be a head coach and possibly, he wasn’t that good of an offensive coordinator in the first place. If I remember correctly, Tom Brady and company didn’t start breaking records until he left town.

With two games remaining in the season, the Irish need to win big over UCONN and upset a red hot Stanford team on the road to save their coaches job. Some people might disagree, but I think it’s over if that doesn’t happen. With the likely exodus of upperclassmen to the NFL draft, next year looks even worse for them and it will be hard to sell the administration that they are on the right path.

The real question is who should replace Charlie? Rumors will swirl about Urban Meyer or Bob Stoops, but those guys aren’t dumb. They might use that info to get a raise, but they have jobs that are far better than the Notre Dame position.

Brian Kelly, the Cincinnati head coach, has to be the number 1 choice for the Irish. He brings with him an offensive system that seems to work with whoever is running the show. Additionally, he’ll come in with a level of familiarity in terms of Midwest recruiting. Kelly is the head football coach at a basketball school, in a football state. No matter how good he does at Cincy, he’ll always play second fiddle to Jim Tressel at Ohio State and to the basketball team. Outside of a pay raise, I don’t know what else would keep him in Cincy.

If Notre Dame can’t get Kelly, I could see them possibly looking at Tommy Tuberville. Tommy doesn’t bring with him a proven offensive system, but one thing he does offer is the ability to win big games. He owned Alabama most of the time he was at Auburn. He was also able to bring in a ton of great talent, but that may be hard to replicate because of Notre Dames academic standards. This hire would work best if they were able to hire him along with a proven offensive coordinator. I heard Jim Zorn might be available.

Outside of the big names, I think the best fit for Notre Dame would be a great system guy. Someone who’s system has proven to be successful in almost any situation. The two guys who immediately come to mind are June Jones and Paul Johnson. Jones was somehow able to win and win big at Hawaii. Now, the competition isn’t amazing in the WAC, but it’s also one of the more difficult recruiting locations, so he had his work cut out for him. Additionally, he’s turned around SMU in two seasons and that seemed impossible just 18 months ago.

Johnson has a pretty good thing going at Georgia Tech, but Notre Dame is still a better job. Johnson has only been at GT for two years, so buying him out may be cheap compared to anyone else they are looking at. Johnson’s flexbone option has already proven to be successful at the BCS conference level and would certainlyl has shortcomings on the defensive side of the ball, but in this day and age of college football, everyone does.

every 4 work will in South Bend given their unique scheduling. If a team only sees the option once every 4 years, it becomes even more difficult to defend. He still has shortcomings on the defensive side of the ball, but in this day and age of college football, everyone does.

Music 2009

I was thinking about doing a top ten list for this year’s, but that is pretty boring. Any numbskull with a blog can make a top ten list. Instead of a top ten list, I thought I’d make a specific category for my favorite CD’s so far this year.

Album my daughter is most likely to steal from me in her teens: Green Day’s 21^st Century Breakdown.

Not by any stretch my favorite CD of the year and I’m in no way a big GD fan, but I can see this being the type of music kids still listen to 10 years from now. Aside from being such a popular band, GD has done the best job at making popular anti-establishment music. Much our generation we stole the Doors and Jimmy Hendrix, our kids will steal Green Day. Writing that is sort of depressing since we realize GD’s shortcoming is their ability to create punk pop like no one else. Our kids will just want it since Wikipedia will tell them that Green Day was cool.

Album most likely to be a trivia question on a Genius Edition of Trivial Pursuit: Steve Martin’s ‘The Crow: New Songs for the Five-string Banjo’

“This comedian released a critically acclaimed record in 2009, years after his last funny movie”. I was totally surprised when I listened to the album and found it sort of enjoyable. It is what it says it is; new banjo music. No dueling banjos or hillbilly music, but Steve Martin walling away.

The album that would have been great if it was 4 songs shorter: “Street Sweeper Social Club”.

The released two teaser songs associated with the NINJA tour, and I was really excited. It was like Rage against the Machine mixed with the Flobots. And that is how the CD starts off. I’m not sure I’m ready to describe how the CD ends, but let’s just say it’s like me 3 hours after a 10oz Red Bull.

Album most likely to be remixed into a dance CD: “The XX”.

I might be dating myself here, but do they still do that sort of thing? I always liked it when they took a good song and dropped a techno beat behind it. I’m more likely to walk into a Church than a club at this point in my life. I digress. Great CD, but not something you’d want to listen to on a run. Angelo put it best by saying “perfect for the cold rainy days of DC”. I haven’t gotten my fill of this CD and I’ve been listening to it daily for the last 2 weeks. Love it.

Biggest disappointment from someone who obviously knows better: The Dead Weather’s “Horehound”.

My open letter to Jack White: Dear Jack, how can you make a CD where you basically don’t do anything besides play the drums? I know you’re busy wasting everyone time bedding your supermodel wife and putting out forgettable Raconteurs (yeah, I said it, FORGETABLE!) albums, so you have to limit yourself a little. But please remember, that your most critically acclaimed and most popular music involved Meg playing the drums. Now, I know you’ve done a good job at hiding it, but we both know that Meg has the IQ of a donkey. But your ability to carry her through some amazing albums and unforgettable performances is part of what makes you my musical idol. Horehound just makes me nostalgic for the old days when you did all the difficult things for a two person band. Now you do the easy part on 4 person band and the sum of the parts is barely mediocre. Please Jack, take this time to realize your window is closing and your opportunity for great music is limited. You can make average CD’s with so and so from a band that just couldn’t make it over the hump, or you can make amazing music with Meg the drum playing donkey. Make the right choice. Jon

The Album I’ll be listening to in 5 years: Modest Mouse “No One’s first and your next”

MM is the last band that I really want to see in concert that are still good enough to make me want to see them. This isn’t there best work, but it’s hard to quantify what they do since most of their CD’s sound adlibbed at the time they recorded them. I’ll be listening to them for at least the next 5 years, but I’m not sure they’ll stand the test of time. I’m not sure you can listen to Modest Mouse on the way to the soccer game or Disney world.

The album I’ll be listening to in 10 years: “Wilco the Album”

Okay, it’s official, I’m a Wilco fan, but I have no real desire to see them in concert if not for the fear that the place will smell like patchouli oil and pot. And everyone knows I hate smell of patchouli oil. This is a very solid album if you are a Wilco fan. Their albums are produced to the point of perfection. There is never a doubt about what sound they are trying to make. If these guys had died in a fiery plane crash 4 years ago, they’d be huge and everyone would have a copy of Yankee Hotel Foxtrot. But since planes don’t crash like they used to, they are forced to make music that changes with the times. This album is easy enough for old people to listen, but enough rock and roll to make you feel young.

Owning Mahoney

One of the greatest gambling movies of all time is Owning Mahoney. It was Philip Seymour Hoffman before he became ultra famous. Don't get me wrong, he's was famous at the time, but he'd always played second fiddle. This was one of his first leading roles. Now the movie is great, but the book is simply amazing but it goes by the title 'Owning Maloney'. I guess they didn't think Americans would be into a movie with a guy with that last name. Anyways, he was a compulsive gambler to the nth degree. In his mind, he believed that eventually he'd just break even. So he'd call his bookie and say "I'll take the away teams in the American League and the home teams in the National League for a thousand each." Which to me sounds like the most awful way to bet ever since there is no conceivable way you could watch all those games, so you are basically just going to wake up in the morning, check the paper and see if you lost. Buy a powerball.

Two points I want to make off this intro; first gambling on sports is fun for two primary reasons. First, it gives you a reason to cheer on teams you'd normally ignore. Secondly, it gives you a chance to evaluate teams like you would apples at the super market. You can squeeze them and smell them all day, but you won't know what's in store until you take a bite.

For this weeks pics, I pulled a Mahoney and took all the away teams in the NFL and the home teams in college. And Sunday night, I'll be eating dry ribs with a diet coke.

Here are the pics for this week. I'll be traveling for the next 2 weeks, so results may come in slow. I'll have to see what my internet situation looks like. I'll take the home teams in college and the away teams in the NFL.

Texas -18 vs TT; Hard to take tech in this game considering that leach has never won at Austin plus the revenge factor is going to weigh in big time. Not exactly a game I'd target otherwise because you never know what will happen, but Texas is clearly an 18 point favorite when it comes to talent.

Iowa -6 vs Arizona; tough road trip for Arizona. Iowa has a very strong O line/D line combo and this spread is only this low because of the slow start they had v N Iowa. That won't happen again. Iowa has found a rhythm with two good running backs and will be able to win this game by more than a TD at home.

NFL

Colts -3 @ Miami; I'm not sure how Miami will score in this game. Aside from their gimmick formations, they just don't pose a threat. This seems to happen the second year of every new system for Pennington. His little lob passes start getting timed. I worry about the line because the colts just don't close people out, but I can see them winning this one by ten.

Gints +3 @ Dallas; What is the over under on the number of punts that hit the scoreboard? I'm going with 6. That may sound high, but I think the punters in the league will be out to prove a point. BTW, do you think Jerry bribed the Boys punter not to hit it? In my eyes, the Gints are the better team. While the boys looked great last week, this week they play a real team that can actually score points on offense.


Seattle +1.5 @ Niners; pretty surprised to see this line. I guess the book makers expected Arizona to be good this year. Defensively, the two teams are a draw, but offensively, I don't think its close. I'll take the points any day in this one.

Heading into Monday Night

I was going to throw together a recap of Saturday night's college football games and the first games on Sunday, but I'm going to skip all that. There was some good info on the USC/OSU game that I posted on Facebook. I scratched my head all game long why OSU didn't throw the ball short to the slot receiver. Could there be an easier throw? Puzzling. I wonder what it would take for Tressel to hand over the play calling. I think he'd just assume retire.

As far as gambling is concerned, I'm on a hot streak. I'm 9-2 ATS this week headed into Monday night. If I was playing black jack, I'd probably have walked away from the table. On the flip side, if I were playing craps, I'd be pressing my bets, yelling 'big shooter', doing shots and tipping the dealers. Well this isn't either of those situations. But, the house still wins and usually not just the vig. While vegas generally sets the line for the most amount of action, you'll see some scenarios where that isn't the case. In some instances, Vegas is happy with the line and won't adjust no matter how much cash is going one way. A perfect example would be the two biggest games from Saturday. Tons of money was pouring in on USC and Notre Dame, the two road favorites, but the line didn't move. What happened? The dogs covered or won straight up. I was smart enough to see the USC game coming, but missed the Michigan game. I just couldn't get my head around Michigan stopping Tate or Floyd.

It's one of the things I evaluate every week when making my picks. Sportsbook.com actually posts what percentages of wagers are placed on whom. If I really like a game but see so does 95% of the population, I take pause and reevaluate. If the line hasn't shifted, I'll either stay away or look for a reason to reverse. If the line is moving along with the money, then hopefully I got in early and didn't have to work with the bigger line. If you are reading this, which I doubt anyone does, and are saying to yourself, 'wait, you actually think about this stuff?' Yes, handicapping is more than just knowing what the starting QB's name is and what time the game starts. Trying to use deductive reasoning to figure out who is going to win is the best part.

As for Monday night's games I picked the Chargers -9.5 at Oakland earlier this week. The line opened at 7 (3 months ago) and has shifted up to follow the money. The money is chasing the chargers with 75% of the action, but there is probably enough money line action on the Raider at 4-1 to balance it out. While I'll stick with my pick, I really wouldn't wager this one too hard unless you were chasing your losses from earlier in the week. I know home field doesn't matter much in the NFL, but 10 points is a bunch to give up to any road team even one that is far more talented.

I didn't make a pick for the Pats/Bills game, but this one scares me. First, the Pats have a new O coordinator, a QB who hasn't played a real game in a year, an O line that is near the bottom of the league and a defense that is 80% new. Not exactly the recipe for success. Lucky for them, they get to play the Bills. There were 3 teams who fired their O coordinators in the preseason. 2 of them lost and didn't cover. That doesn't bode well for the Bills who also have an O line that is considerably worse than the Pats'. Two touchdowns is a bunch to give up in the NFL especially with some much change for the Pats, but I don't foresee anyway that the Bills keep this closer the 10 especially if the run the no huddle for any period of time. NE is 8-2 ATS vs Buff in their last meetings. Both were home games for NE and one was the season opener in 2006. While that was a good team, they really didn't have the fire power they have now. With all that said, I've talked myself into taking the Pats tonight.

And since I'm riding a heater, I might as well make it a parlay!